UW-FRI Daily Update

July 22, 2017

Bristol Bay Cumulative Compare7.21.17District Cumulative Compare7.21.17Figure A. Cumulative C+E Comparison: Comparison of daily cumulative C+E observed for Bristol Bay in 2017, and expected daily values (blue curve). Expected daily values are calculated relative to the 2016 preseason forecast and the average distribution of inshore arrivals (1980–2016). Connected gray dots show the 2017 observed daily cumulative C+E. Green dashed line represents expectations if the run is 2 days early, red dashed line if the run is 2 days late.  

Daily Comparisons7.21.17Figure B. Daily Catch and Escapement: Observed catch and escapement for years 2013–2016 as stacked bars, compared with 2017 (top). Escapements are in light gray and catches in dark gray.  Total run for Bristol Bay is shown in millions of sockeye on the right hand axis.

 

 

Port Moller Backcast sigmaTravel2_7.15.17Figure C. Comparison of Expected & Observed Daily Port Moller Index: 2017 observed and interpolated (gray and black bars) UW-FRI Port Moller Index is compared with expected daily index values (red line and shaded area) for a Bristol Bay run equal to the preseason forecast with average run timing, and exhibiting average Port Moller to inshore travel time (TT) and run-per-index (RPI). Expected daily index values for a run at the preseason forecast, with TT and RPI equal to those observed in 2013-2016 are plotted with blue lines and symbols.

 

Note: 2014 exhibited shorter TT and higher RPI compared with the 1990-2016 average (and other example years) hence the expected daily indices for the current year being lower and later.

Days in Excess NEW7.21.17Figure D. Expected C+E Days: Total number of days in which the catch + escapement exceeded 1.0, 2.0 or 3.0 million fish as a function of the total run size from 1965 to 2016. Fitted lines indicate the expected number of days in excess, for a specific total return. Shaded area encompasses the data for total returns between 39 and 47 million fish. Red outlined diamonds are 2017 observed C+E days in excess of 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0 million fish. Note: the red outlined diamonds will be stacked on the horizontal axis until the first 1.0 million fish day is recorded.

Acknowledgements

Bristol Bay catch and escapement data were collected by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, with support from the Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute.

Data interpretation is conducted by UW-FRI, please direct any questions to Curry Cunningham or Chris Boatright at 907-842-5380.