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7.06.2005

Big powers play out Great Game over tiny Kyrgyzstan

Agence France Press BISHKEK July 5-It may not have the natural resources of its neighbors, but as Kyrgyzstan prepares to go to presidential polls on Sunday, competing powers are eyeing the tiny republic as an ideal outpost for their strategic interests. Located at the crossroads of energy-rich and authoritarian Central Asia, west of China's rapidly expanding economy and north of a restless Islamic world, the weakness of tiny Kyrgyzstan has made it an easy target for competing powers, analysts say. With just days left before the presidential vote, the United States, Russia and China are watching the interim leadership of post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan closely, as the country continues to be wracked by instability following the March ouster of veteran leader Askar Akayev. "This used to be a distant corner in a great empire but today it is the focal point for the attention of many states," said Muratbek Imanaliev, the Soviet Union's former ambassador to China and Kyrgyzstan's ex-foreign minister. The United States already has an airbase used for its military operations in Afghanistan here, while Russia hopes to upgrade its presence in the republic with a second airbase that it claims it needs to combat terrorism. Interim President Kurmanbek Bakiyev recently made overtures to Moscow, Kyrgyzstan's former overlord, in local media, saying military cooperation with Russia was "developing successfully," while the US airbase would likely be shut "after the situation in Afghanistan stabilizes." The two countries' military presence on China's western flank is sure to irritate Beijing, which has focused its efforts on securing oil deals with Kyrgyzstan's giant neighbor Kazakhstan. But the presence of foreign forces in Kyrgyzstan is also becoming an issue at home. "Some of the countries surrounding Kyrgyzstan view the bases as a threat, which makes them a real threat to us, because fighting the bases means fighting Kyrgyzstan," Imanaliev said. "Now we're a target," said the former diplomat. Historically more liberal than its neighbors Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, this country is the location of choice for the regional offices of a host of western-backed pro-democracy groups and aid organizations. The country has in effect become a testing ground for regime change elsewhere in Central Asia, both by setting an example with its March revolution and as a regional center for influencing opposition groups in neighboring states. "The Americans were ready for the devil himself to come to power here as long as it wasn't Akayev," said a source close to Kyrgyzstan's interim president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who is set to win Sunday's vote. "They needed to set a precedent for regime change in Central Asia." "They couldn't care less about Kyrgyzstan itself, they're working on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, we are important as a trigger that can detonate the situation," the source said. Mindful of the events in Kyrgyzstan, where thousands of demonstrators stormed the government building to depose Akayev on March 24, its neighbors have cooled their relations with the country and instituted a crackdown on internal opposition groups. In the Uzbek city of Andijan in May, police fired on protestors killing several hundred people according to rights groups, while Kazakhstan has put forward draconian proposals to restrict the activities of non-governmental organizations and religious groups. Both Russia and China publicly backed Uzbekistan's authoritarian leader Islam Karimov after Andijan amid widespread Western condemnation of the events as a massacre. Tashkent has hinted it could impose sanctions on Kyrgyzstan if Bishkek refuses to extradite hundreds of refugees who fled events in Andijan back to Uzbekistan, which considers them to be Muslim extremists. But the United Nations has warned that Kyrgyzstan may not receive development aid if it deports the refugees back to a country where torture is said by rights groups to be endemic. "We've been pushed into a complicated situation," Kyrgyzstan's acting foreign minister Roza Otunbayeva said last week.

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