As the 21st century unfolds and we face the likelihood of climatic changes unprecedented in human history, scientists, resource managers, and policy makers must anticipate changes in the ecosystems on which society has come to depend. In the ocean, this involves confronting the challenge of taking our modest understanding of marine ecosystem responses to previously observed changes in climate and trying to forecast the fate of these ecosystems and their living resources in a future shaped by both natural as well as anthropogenic climate forcing.
Recent studies of continental shelf ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans demonstrate just how daunting this challenge may be. In addition to the anticipated local effects of anthropogenic climate forcing, these ecosystems are also being remotely forced, through advective processes, by multiple modes of basin-scale climate variability. Among the many potential ecological responses to climate variability and change, two types stand out as particularly obvious indicators: ecosystem regime shifts and biogeographic range shifts. At the Friday Harbor Laboratories’ Centennial Symposium on Global Ocean Ecosystems and Climate, we will investigate the role of climate in forcing ecosystem regime shifts and biogeographic range shifts on both sides of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Specifically, we will review evidence linking the dynamics of these shifts in NW and NE Atlantic shelf ecosystems to two important modes of high-latitude climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We then will contrast and compare our findings from the North Atlantic with comparable findings from the North Pacific, ones linking ecosystem regime shifts and biogeographic range shifts to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A major goal of this Symposium is to improve our understanding of climate forcing on North Atlantic and North Pacific shelf ecosystems so that we will be in a better position to model and predict the regional impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the future.
Primary Objectives:
• review the evidence for ecosystem regime shifts and biogeographic range shifts from each study region as well as the analytical methods used detect them
• review the alternative hypotheses used to explain the causes of observed regime shifts and biogeographic range shifts
• synthesize results from these pan-regional studies to enhance numerical models that quantify our predictive understanding of Global Ocean Ecosystem responses to climate variability and change.
Forum and Anticipated Outcomes:
The symposium will consist of invited presentations, breakout sessions, and facilitated discussions. Invited participants will identify research priorities and suggest ways to coordinate future research efforts and leverage support for maximum impact. We anticipate that this symposium will facilitate the preparation of several multi-authored, pan-regional synthesis papers.
Agenda
23 Aug. Oral presentations and posters on Global Ocean Ecosystems and Climate Research
24 Aug. Oral presentations and posters on Global Ocean Ecosystems and Climate Research
25 Aug. Break-out Sessions: Ecosystem Regime Shifts and Climate; Biogeographic Range Shifts and Climate
26 Aug. AM Synthesis: Ecosystem Regime Shifts and Climate; Biogeographic Range Shifts and Climate
PM Implications for Ecosystem-Based Management
Implications for Ocean Observing
27 Aug. Development of Synthesis Writing Teams
Organizers: Charles Greene, Cornell University (chg2@cornell.edu)
Early registrants scheduled to attend: A. Pershing GMRI (apershing@gmri.org); I. Belkin U Rhode Island (igormbelkin@gmail.com); R. Ji WHOI (rji@whoi.edu); D. Mountain (dmountain@capecod.net); D. Haidvogel Rutgers (dale@ahab.rutgers.edu); C. Greene Cornell (chg2@cornell.edu); H. Hatun Faroe Islands Resaerch Institute (hjalmarh@frs.fo); C. Reid SAHFOS (pcre@sahfos.ac.uk); M. DiLorenzo Georgia Tech. (edl@eas.gatech.edu); A. Miller Scripps (ajmiller@ucsd.edu); N. Bond NOAA Seattle (nicholas.bond@noaa.gov); N. Mantua UW (mantua@atmos.washington.edu); M. Ohman Scripps (mohman@ucsd.edu); W. Peterson NOAA Newport (bill.peterson@noaa.gov); D. Welch Kintama (david.welch@kintama.com); J. Kiester UW (jkeister@u.washington.edu); D. Mackas IOS Sydney (mackasd@pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca); E. Carmack IOS Sydney (eddy.carmack@dfo-mpo.gc.ca); Jurgen Alheit Baltic Sea Res Institute (juergen.alheit@io-warnemuende.de); K. Denman Center Climate Modeling & Analysis (ken.denman@ec.gc.ca); Igor Yashayaev BIO (yashayaevi@mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca); Lew Incze GMRI (lincze@maine.edu); Sam McClatchie NOAA La Jolla (Sam.McClatchie@noaa.gov)
Travel tips:
Flights should be booked to Seattle, WA (Sea-Tac airport), with post-meeting departures on Monday afternoon to allow for the several-hour-long commute.
From Sea-Tac, Friday Harbor can be reached by:
Air www.kenmoreair.com
Shuttle van http://www.islandairporter.com/
Rental car driven to Anacortes, WA (~70 mi/2 hr north of Seattle) to catch a car ferry to Friday Harbor, San Juan Island http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/ferries/
On-island transport to FHL from the Friday Harbor airport or shuttle drop-off can be pre-arranged with the coordinators.
Note: Crossing the U.S.-Canada border requires a passport or equivalent documentation http://www.consular.canada.usembassy.gov/passport_requirement.asp
August weather on San Juan Island is typically quite enjoyable, with temperatures often reaching highs in the 60’s (F), and lows in the 40-50’s. FHL is situated in the rain-shadow of the Olympic Mountains and is thus substantially drier than Seattle (although attendees should prepare for the possibility of rain).
For more information regarding FHL not answered on this website please contact Rachel Anderson (fhl100@uw.edu). Further questions regarding the scientific content can be directed to the organizers. Space is limited to ~50; so, sign up soon for what should be a stimulating meeting in a scenic locale. Minorities, women, and young scientists are especially encouraged to apply