The objective of this course is to expose students to how to use decision analysis to evaluate alternative management actions. The focus will be on fisheries applications, but the models and techniques are applicable broadly in quantitative conservation biology.The course is based on two major themes:
- what is decision analysis and what are the key steps
when conducting a decision analysis; and
- using Bayesian methods to determine the probabilities that should be associated with alternative states of nature.
ht be evaluated,
and defining performance measures to summarize the consequences
of each management action.
The second part of the course introduces Bayesian methods and how to sample parameter vectors from posterior distributions using numerical methods (the Sampling-Importance-Resample and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods). The use of Bayesian meta-analysis will be introduced as an approach to syntheszing data from multiple studies.
Decision analysis and Bayesian methods will be illustrated
in class using examples from fisheries and terrestrial systems.
Students will conduct decision analyses for an actual situation as part
of the course evaluation.