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Firearm Injury Interventions
Concealed Weapons Laws
Background
One important issue related to firearms is
whether allowing individuals to carry concealed handguns increases the risk of injury
and death; or conversely, whether restrictions on the right to carry handguns has
a net effect on reducing violence related injuries and deaths. As of 1997, at least
30 states have laws allowing authorities to issue concealed weapons permits, compared
to only 9 states in 1986. These generally fall into two categories of laws: (1)
"may issue" laws, under which legal authorities grant licenses
only to citizens who can establish a compelling need for them; and, (2) "shall
issue" laws, under which authorities must provide a license to any applicant
who meets specified criteria.
This, like many other issues related to firearms,
is hotly debated and there have been a number of studies on the impact of legislation
related to the right to carry concealed weapons. This literature is reviewed below.
Review of concealed weapons
law interventions:
Author | Lott and Mustard, 1997 |
Study design and target population | Cross sectional time series, at the county level in
the United States 1977-92. |
Intervention | Right to carry concealed handguns. |
Outcomes | Murder, rapes, aggravated assaults, and robberies. |
Results | The determined that when RTC laws went into effect,
there was a 7.65% decrease in homicide, 5% decrease in rape and 7% decrease
in aggravated assault, without a substantial increase in unintentional handgun
deaths.
Note that crime rate did not decline until 4 years
after RTC laws implemented. |
Study quality and conclusions | Claim that permitting concealed weapons is an economical
way to reduce crime. Used 2 stage least squares regression (2SLS) to adjust
for confounding. Controversial analysis. Webster claims analysis is incorrect
because authors failed to control for the cyclical nature of crime rates, made
inappropriate assumptions in their statistical models and oversimplified characterization
of RTC laws. Reanalysis by Black and Nagin yield results which contradict findings
presented here. |
Author | Black and Nagin, 1997 |
Study design and target population | Re-analysis of Lott and Mustard data |
Intervention | Right to carry concealed handguns. |
Outcomes | Murder, rapes, aggravated assaults, and robberies. |
Results | No association between shall-issue laws and violent
crime rates. |
Study quality and conclusions | They found that crime rates in these states were higher
than national trends prior to passage of the laws. |
Author | McDowall et al., 1995 |
Study design and target population | Interrupted time series study design. 3 states in the
United States-Florida, Mississippi and Oregon |
Intervention | Change from "May issue" to "Shall issue"
laws making it easier to obtain a concealed weapon permit, effective 1987 in
Florida, and 1990 in Mississippi and Oregon |
Outcomes | Homicide rates in Florida (Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa),
Mississippi (Jackson) and 3 counties in Oregon(Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington) |
Results | Gun homicides increased by an average of 26%; an average
increase of 4.5 homicides per 100,000
Conclusions unchanged after adjusting
for other gun laws, controlling for variations in national homicide rates
and population change.
Effect varied by study area; firearm
homicides significantly increased in 3 areas, one area had insignificant decrease.
5 replications, and 2 don’t fit the pattern. |
Study quality and conclusions | They conclude that shall issue laws raise levels of
firearm murders.
Strengths: used NCHS death certificate data,
and time series analyses to evaluate substantial time periods, adjusting for
confounders such as age, poverty , historical and population changes, and
national homicide trends.
Limitations: evaluated only urban populations,
residual confounding may be present. |
Summary of concealed weapons
law interventions
The studies on concealed weapons laws are
not consistent. Lott and Mustard22
found that the laws actually decrease the risk of violence
related death. A re-analysis of their data, however, by others, found that there was
in fact no relationship between these laws and risk of violent death, although these
authors did not find an increased risk of death. McDowall and colleagues10
found that a change from may issue to shall issue laws was accompanied by an increase
in gun homicides.
Recommendations on concealed
weapons law interventions
Recommendations for future research
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