ContentsTesting the Empirical Performance of Stochastic Volatility Models of the Short Term Interest RateTuran G. Bali
Do the Portfolios of Small Investors Reflect Positive Feedback Trading?
Profitability of Momentum Strategies in the International Equity Markets
Dividend Behavior and Dividend Signaling
The Impact of Takeovers on Shareholder Wealth
during the 1920s Merger Wave
Behavioral Portfolio Theory
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Abstracts Testing the Empirical Performance of Stochastic Volatility Models of the Short Term Interest
Rate I introduce two-factor discrete time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate to compare the relative performance of existing and alternative empirical specifications. I develop a nonlinear asymmetric framework that allows for comparisons of non-nested models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity and sensitivity of the volatility process to interest rate levels. A new class of stochastic volatility models with asymmetric drift and nonlinear asymmetric diffusion process is introduced in discrete time and tested against the popular continuous time and symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. The existing models are rejected in favor of the newly proposed models because of the asymmetric drift of the short rate, and the presence of nonlinearity, asymmetry, GARCH, and level effects in its volatility. I test the predictive power of nested and non-nested models in capturing the stochastic behavior of the risk-free rate. Empirical evidence on three-, six-, and 12-month U.S. Treasury bills indicates that two-factor stochastic volatility models are better than diffusion and GARCH models in forecasting the future level and volatility of interest rate changes.
Do the Portfolios of Small Investors Reflect Positive Feedback Trading? This study examines the stock market forecasts and portfolio allocation decisions of small individual investors, based on survey data for 1987-1994. When investors are bullish, they increase their equity holdings; when investors are bearish, they decrease equity holdings. The surveyed investors are unable to time the stock market successfully. However, the shifts in their portfolios reflect past market movements and are consistent with positive feedback trading.
Profitability of Momentum Strategies in the International Equity Markets This paper examines the profitability of momentum strategies implemented on international stock market indices. Our results indicate statistically significant evidence of momentum profits. The momentum profits arise mainly from time-series predictability in stock market indices---very little profit comes from predictability in the currency markets. We also find higher profits for momentum portfolios implemented on markets with higher volume in the previous period, indicating that return continuation is stronger following an increase in trading volume. This result confirms the informational role of volume and its applicability in technical analysis.
Dividend Behavior and Dividend Signaling We analyze the dividend behavior of the aggregate stock market. We propose a model that assumes managers minimize the costs of adjustment associated with being away from their target dividend payout. The target is expressed as a function of lagged stock prices and permanent earnings, generalizing previous models of dividend behavior. We present a new method for measuring unobserved permanent earnings based on the Kalman filter. Our specification of dividend behavior is strongly supported by the data relative to both alternative models and over time. We find significant evidence of dividend smoothing and dividends conveying information regarding unexpected positive changes in current permanent earnings. We also find that both the speed of adjustment of dividends to target dividends and tests of signaling are sensitive to the specification of the model.
The Impact of Takeovers on Shareholder Wealth
during the 1920s Merger Wave We examine the impact of merger announcements on portfolios of acquiring firm and target firm common stock from 1919 to 1930. Despite vast changes in the economic and regulatory environment, overall acquisition profitability has remained remarkably constant over the last 70 to 80 years. Target firm shareholders in the 1920s clearly gained from takeovers, averaging abnormal returns in excess of 15%, while acquiring firm shareholders essentially broke even. Synergistic or monopolistic gains from consolidation were minimal. Unlike the more recent experience, target firm and acquiring firm abnormal returns were largely unaffected by the mode of acquisition, the means of financing, or the degree of industrial relatedness.
Behavioral Portfolio Theory We develop a positive behavioral portfolio theory (BPT) and explore its implications for portfolio construction and security design. The optimal portfolios of BPT investors resemble combinations of bonds and lottery tickets, consistent with Friedman and Savage's (1948) observation. We compare the BPT efficient frontier with the mean-variance efficient frontier and show that, in general, the two frontiers do not coincide. Optimal BPT portfolios are also different from optimal CAPM portfolios. In particular, the CAPM two-fund separation does not hold in BPT. We present BPT in a single mental account version (BPT-SA) and a multiple mental account version (BPT-MA). BPT-SA investors integrate their portfolios into a single mental account, while BPT-MA investors segregate their portfolios into several mental accounts. BPT-MA portfolios resemble layered pyramids, where layers are associated with aspirations. We explore a two-layer portfolio where the low aspiration layer is designed to avoid poverty while the high aspiration layer is designed for a shot at riches.
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