| date | day of week | class | topic | reading(s) |
| 3/28 | M | 1 | course introduction, compounded conservatism, CMA example, intro to Crystal Ball™ | CMA '91 excerpt |
| 3/30 | W | 2 | more 1D MC using Crystal Ball™, CMA example continued | |
| 4/1 | F | 3 | good practice, additional Crystal Ball™ features | Burmaster & Anderson (1994) |
| 4/4 | M | 4 | introduction to 2D MC with CB, H&H case | Hoffman & Hammonds (1994) |
| 4/6 | W | 5 | more 2D MC - interpreting uncertainty & variability, tolerance limits, 2D plotting | excerpts from Conover (1980), IAEA (1989), Morgan & Henrion (1990) |
| 4/8 | F | 6 | taxonomy of uncertainy, uncertainty by IF statement | EPA RAGS conc term |
| 4/11 | M | 7 |
distribution selection |
Thompson (1999) |
| 4/13 | W | 8 | case study - soil adherence PDF | Finley et al, letters |
| 4/15 | F | 9 | case study - soil adherence PDF | |
| 4/18 | M | 10 |
criticisms of 2D Monte Carlo, back calculation problem, deconvolution |
Ferson (1996), Burmaster et al (1995) |
| 4/20 | W | 11 | correlated variables | Slob (1994); Smith et al (1992) |
| 4/22 | F | 12 | correlated variables | |
| 4/25 | M | 13 | integrated exposure and dose response uncertainty - QMRA | |
| 4/27 | W | 14 | QMRA |
|
| 4/29 | F | 15 | QMRA | |
| 5/2 | M | 16 | case study TBD | |
| 5/4 | W | 17 | case study TBD | |
| 5/6 | F | 18 | case study TBD | |
| 5/9 | M | no class | ||
| 5/11 | W | no class | ||
| 5/13 | F | no class | ||
| 5/16 | M | 19 | Markov-Chain Monte Carlo | |
| 5/18 | W | 20 | Markov-Chain Monte Carlo | |
| 5/20 | F | 21 | Markov-Chain Monte Carlo | |
| 5/23 | M | 22 | student presentations | |
| 5/25 | W | 23 | student presentations | |
| 5/27 | F | 24 | student presentations | |
| 5/30 | M | no class (Memorial Day holidays) | ||
| 6/1 | W | 25 | student presentations | |
| 6/3 | F | 26 | student presentations/wrap-up |
