EnvH 574 - Tentative Schedule

Spring Quarter, 2011



date day of week class topic reading(s)
3/28 M 1 course introduction, compounded conservatism, CMA example, intro to Crystal Ball™ CMA '91 excerpt
3/30 W 2 more 1D MC using Crystal Ball™, CMA example continued  
4/1 F 3 good practice, additional Crystal Ball™ features Burmaster & Anderson (1994)
4/4 M 4 introduction to 2D MC with CB, H&H case Hoffman & Hammonds (1994)
4/6 W 5 more 2D MC - interpreting uncertainty & variability, tolerance limits, 2D plotting excerpts from Conover (1980), IAEA (1989), Morgan & Henrion (1990)
4/8 F 6 taxonomy of uncertainy, uncertainty by IF statement EPA RAGS conc term
4/11 M 7

distribution selection

Thompson (1999)
4/13 W 8 case study - soil adherence PDF Finley et al, letters
4/15 F 9 case study - soil adherence PDF  
4/18 M 10

criticisms of 2D Monte Carlo, back calculation problem, deconvolution

Ferson (1996), Burmaster et al (1995)
4/20 W 11 correlated variables Slob (1994); Smith et al (1992)
4/22 F 12 correlated variables  
4/25 M 13 integrated exposure and dose response uncertainty - QMRA  
4/27 W 14 QMRA

 

4/29 F 15 QMRA  
5/2 M 16 case study TBD  
5/4 W 17 case study TBD  
5/6 F 18 case study TBD  
5/9 M   no class  
5/11 W   no class  
5/13 F   no class  
5/16 M 19 Markov-Chain Monte Carlo  
5/18 W 20 Markov-Chain Monte Carlo  
5/20 F 21 Markov-Chain Monte Carlo  
5/23 M 22 student presentations  
5/25 W 23 student presentations  
5/27 F 24 student presentations  
5/30 M   no class (Memorial Day holidays)  
6/1 W 25 student presentations  
6/3 F 26 student presentations/wrap-up  

 


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