The Northwest and Alaska Fire Research Clearinghouse
 The Northwest and Alaska Fire Research Clearinghouse

www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera/firehouse 

Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Seasonal Fire Risk Forecasts (MAPSS)
Wildland fire management agencies are increasingly interested in more long-term forecasts of fire business. Several short-term fire potential assessments are currently available ranging from Wildland Fire Potential Assessments (WFAS) next-day fire danger ratings to 28-day WFAS from the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC). Missing from this collection are midterm fire potential forecasts for strategic planning of large prescribed fire events and prioritization of suppression resources.

The MAPSS ecosystem modeling team is producing an ensemble of fire risk simulations based on different weather forecasts to better capture the range of potential fire risk over the midterm. Each month five different fire risk forecasts are generated from the updated 7-month weather forecasts generated by five different weather models. Fire risk forecasts are generated from the historical and forecast weather data using MC1, a dynamic general vegetation model developed by the MAPSS team. MC1 consists of interacting modules that simulate biogeography, biogeochemistry, and fire disturbance. Maps showing the distribution of the MC1-simulated fire occurrence and area burned for each weather forecast are posted on the MAPSS team's web site. A consensus forecast map is also generated showing regions where MC1 predicts fire under one or more of the weather scenarios, and the relative size of the predicted fires.

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Comments/suggestions?Last updated: 03/16/2005
FIREHouse is a collaboration between the Fire and Environmental Research Applications Team (FERA) of the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory; the University of Washington; the National Park Service; the Bureau of Land Management – Alaska Fire Service; the US Fish and Wildlife Service; and the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII). The NBII is a broad, collaborative program that provides increased access to data and information on the nation’s biological resources. Funding for FIREHouse has been provided by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) and NBII. FIREHouse is coordinating efforts with the Fire Research and Management Exchange System (FRAMES) project team. Content on FIREHouse will provide substantial contributions to the Northwest Fire Science Portal and the Alaska Fire Science Portal.
 
Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) Fire and Environmental Research Applications Team, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, PNW Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA USDA Forest Service Fire Research and Management Exchange System (FRAMES)    National Biological Information Infrastructure
College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
National Park Service Alaska Fire Service US Fish & Wildlife Service