Office of Planning and Budgeting

November Revenue Forecast Predicts Slower, But Increasing Growth

Posted under Revenue Forecast, State Legislature by Barbara Reichart 

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their November revenue forecast. The projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the 2017-19 biennium increased by $163.4 million. Projected revenue collections for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $195.5 million. The report projects higher personal income than the September revenue forecast, but slower growth.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $45.799 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 17.3 percent more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $50.002 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.2 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $53.795 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.6 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

  • Washington’s unemployment declined to 4.3 percent in October, an all-time low in the series that extends back to 1976.
  • The forecast expects 2.7 percent Washington employment growth this year compared to 2.9 percent in the September forecast. The forecast expects growth to decelerate gradually as the recovery matures and for employment growth to average 1.3 percent per year in 2019 through 2023.
  • The forecast estimates that Washington personal income in the second quarter of 2018 is $10.4 billion (2.4 percent) higher than the September forecast.
  • Cumulative GF-S revenue collections from September 11 through November 10, 2018 were $22 million (0.7 percent) higher than forecasted in September. The slower growth was primarily attributed to Revenue Act taxes, which make up the bulk of GF-S revenue and include sales taxes, business and occupation taxes, and certain tobacco products, coming in $25 million (0.9 percent) lower than forecasted in September.

Governor Jay Inslee will use revenue estimates from this forecast when crafting his proposed 2019-21 biennial budgets, which will be released in December. The Governor’s budget release is the first step in the budget process for the upcoming 2019 legislative session, which begins in January.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on 2019-21 budget proposals and the legislative session!

September Revenue Forecast Shows Increased Revenue

Posted under Revenue Forecast, State Legislature by Barbara Reichart 

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their September revenue forecast. The projected Near General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the 2017-19 biennium increased by $348 million. Projected revenue collections for the 2019-21 biennium increased by $443 million. The forecast expects higher personal income and employment than the June revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected Near GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $45.636 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 16.9 percent more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $49.806 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.1 percent more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $53.585 billion for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.6 percent more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

  • Cumulative GF-S revenue collections from June 11 through September 10, 2018 were $147 million (3.0 percent) higher than forecasted in June.
  • Revenue Act taxes, which make up the bulk of GF-S revenue and include sales taxes, business and occupation taxes, and certain tobacco products, came in $137 million (3.3 percent) higher than forecasted.
  • The forecast expects Washington employment to grow 2.9 percent this year compared to 2.5 percent in the June forecast. The increase is primarily attributed to growing private services-providing sectors. Partially due to employment growth, personal income is also projected to be higher than the June forecast.

There will be one more revenue forecast this year, which will be released in November. The Governor will use the November forecast revenue estimates when crafting his proposed 2019-21 biennial budgets, which will be released in December.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on revenue forecasts and the upcoming 2019 legislative session!

OPBlog: Introduction

Posted under OPB News and Announcements by Barbara Reichart 

Hello! My name is Barbara Reichart and I am the 2018-19 Legislative and Policy Analysis Intern for the Office of Planning & Budgeting (OPB). I am currently a graduate student at the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance seeking a Masters in Public Administration. Prior to joining the University of Washington community, I worked at a trade association focusing on higher education access and financing policy in Washington, DC.

I am excited to join the OPB team and look forward to updating the OPBlog throughout the year with posts related to higher education trends, federal and state legislative issues, and UW-specific policy initiatives.

Please feel free to send any feedback or suggestions for future posts! You can reach me at reichart@uw.edu.

July Economic & Revenue Update Indicates Continued Growth in Washington

Posted under Revenue Forecast, State Legislature by Lauren Hatchett 

Last month the Washington state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their June revenue forecast. Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections were $189 million higher than the February revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $45.288 billion, for the 2017-19 biennium, 16.0% more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $49.363 billion, for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.0% more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $53.170 billion, for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.7% more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

  • Cumulative real estate excise taxes (REET) were $25 million (8.0%) higher than forecasted.
  • Revenue Act taxes, which consist of sales, use, business and occupation (B&O), utility and non-cigarette tobacco products, make up the bulk of the GF-S revenue. Collections were $131 million (2.7%) higher than forecasted.

In July the ERFC released an economic & revenue update that showed a further increase in GF-S revenue collections. Here is how this update compares:

  • GF-S revenue collections for June 11 through July 10 were $41.1 million (2.4%) above the June forecast.
  • Revenue Act tax collections for the current period were $39.3 million (3.0%) higher than the June forecast.

Washington continues to lead the country in personal income growth. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income estimates for the first quarter of 2018. These estimates showed Washington personal income rose to $434. 1 billion in the first quarter 2018 compared to $426.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017. With 7.4% growth rate, Washington was the highest among the states and the District of Columbia.

Check back with the OPBlog in September for future updates on revenue forecasts.

UW’s Adopted FY19 Operating Budget and Tuition Rates

Posted under OPB News and Announcements, UW Budget by Jed Bradley 

On June 7, the Board of Regents adopted the UW’s Fiscal Year 2019 (FY19) Operating Budget. The budget includes final 2018-19 tuition rates and expected revenue and proposed expenditures by budget area. Annual and quarterly tuition and fee schedules have been posted. Supplementary documents can be found on OPB’s Annual Budgets page.

In conjunction with the FY19 Operating Budget, OPB has updated the estimated 2018-19 cost of attendance for 1st year UW undergraduates. This shows estimated student expenses across UW’s three campuses for:  tuition, mandatory student fees, room & board, books, personal expenses, and transportation. A printable PDF version can be found here. Please note that students often pay far less than the amounts shown after accounting for grant and scholarship aid. Please visit the Office of Student Financial Aid website for more information regarding student budgets and net price.

Public Profiles – New Interactive Dashboards Now Available!

Posted under Higher Ed Research, Institutional Research, OPB News and Announcements by Lauren Hatchett 

In May 2018, in collaboration with UW-IT’s Enterprise Information, Integration and Analytics (EIIA) unit, the Office of Planning and Budgeting (OPB) relaunched Public Profiles, which are now five interactive dashboards including:

All dashboards, except Degrees Production Trends (which is refreshed every August), are refreshed with new data every academic quarter after census day. The data is sourced from the University of Washington’s Enterprise Data Warehouse (EDW). The numbers presented in all dashboards have been approved by OPB and reconcile against internal institutional dashboards – UW Profiles (requires access to EDW).

These dashboards act as the University of Washington’s “Institutional Fact Book.”  Anyone with the access to the internet can view these dashboards using their preferred browser. Explore the dashboards: http://opb.washington.edu/uw-profiles-information

Check back for additional dashboards and visualizations as they become available. Updates regarding these dashboards are also provided by UW-IT on their News page.

Please contact uwprofiles@uw.edu with any questions or for help using these dashboards.

OPB Briefs: 2018 Bill and Fiscal Note Summaries Now Available

Posted under OPB News and Announcements, State Legislature by Lauren Hatchett 

Date: April 5, 2018

OPB has posted two summaries, recapping the 2018 state legislative session, under the “Briefs” tab of the OPB website:

The 2018 Session Bill Summary lists the bills OPB tracked that were passed by the legislature. Links to veto messages are provided for bills that were partially vetoed by the Governor. Of the 775 bills that OPB tracked in the 2018 legislative session, 82 passed into law.

The 2018 Session Fiscal Note Summary lists the fiscal notes – evaluations of the fiscal impact of a bill proposal – that OPB completed on behalf of the UW (with the help of subject matter experts across the University) during the session. All fiscal notes are requested by legislative staff through the Office of Financial Management (OFM) in Olympia to guide legislative decision-making. This session, OPB responded to 145 fiscal note requests from OFM, breaking a record for the most in a legislative session.

 

OPB Brief on Compromise 2018 Supplemental Budgets

Posted under State Legislature, UW Budget by Jed Bradley 

Leadership in the state House and Senate released their compromise 2018 supplemental budget proposals earlier this week—the capital proposal came out on Tuesday evening and the operating proposal on Wednesday evening.  With the release of these budgets, and with their subsequent passage by the legislature, lawmakers ended the legislative session on time, for the first time since 2014.

The compromise budgets make changes to the recently approved 2017-19 biennial capital budget, as well as the 2017-19 biennial operating budget, which was approved last June. An OPB brief comparing the compromise budgets to prior proposals from the House, Senate, and Governor is now available here.

In the coming weeks, OPB will post summaries of approved legislative proposals that were tracked by the University, as well as fiscal notes (objective estimates of a bill proposal’s fiscal impact on the University) that were completed during the 2018 session. Those will be posted on the OPB briefs page.

OPB Brief on Senate and House Leadership 2018 Supplemental Budget Proposals

Posted under State Legislature, UW Budget by Jed Bradley 

On Monday, leadership in the Senate released their 2018 supplemental operating and capital budget proposals. On Tuesday and Wednesday, leadership in the House followed with the release of their 2018 supplemental operating and capital budget proposals. The supplemental proposals include technical corrections and minor appropriation changes to the recently approved 2017-19 biennial capital budget, as well as the 2017-19 biennial operating budget, which was approved last June. They also build off Governor Jay Inslee’s proposals, which he released in December.

Please see this OPB brief for a detailed comparison of the supplemental budget proposals released thus far.

As a reminder, now that the House and the Senate have offered competing proposals, lawmakers will work toward negotiating and passing compromise budgets by the scheduled end of session, on March 8, 2018. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates during the remainder of the 2018 legislative session.

 

 

February Revenue Forecast Shows Largest Increase since Recession

Posted under Revenue Forecast, State Legislature by Lauren Hatchett 

Today, the Washington state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their February revenue forecast. The projected General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the 2017-19 biennium increased by $647 million. Projected revenue collections for the 2019-21 biennium have also increased by $671 million. According to the Governor’s Office of Financial Management (OFM), this forecast is the “largest quarterly increase for the state since before the Great Recession.”

Here is a quick summary of the total projected GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $44.213 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 15.4% more than that of the 2015-17 biennium.
  • $48.253 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.1% more than expected 2017-19 biennial.
  • The initial forecast for the 2021-23 biennium is $51.932 billion, an increase of 7.6% over that of the 2019-21 biennium

Behind the numbers:

  • Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections from November 11, 2017 through February 10, 2018 were $185 million (3.5%) higher than forecasted in November.
  • The Washington economy saw strong housing construction and home price appreciation. Cumulative real estate excise taxes (REET) came in $44 million (21.1%) higher than forecasted. Projected property tax receipts are also 3% higher than expected.
  • For the first time in nearly three years, Washington exports increased (0.6%) in the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • The forecast anticipates continued but slowing growth in employment (2.2%) and personal income (4.6%). Disposable personal income is also higher than assumed (5.0%) than November because of federal tax cuts.

We expect that the majority leadership in the House and Senate will release budget proposals early next week. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates!

Next Page →