Office of Planning and Budgeting

July Economic & Revenue Update Indicates Continued Growth in Washington

Posted under Revenue Forecast, State Legislature by Lauren Hatchett 

Last month the Washington state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their June revenue forecast. Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections were $189 million higher than the February revenue forecast.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $45.288 billion, for the 2017-19 biennium, 16.0% more than the 2015-17 biennium
  • $49.363 billion, for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.0% more than the 2017-19 biennium
  • $53.170 billion, for the 2021-23 biennium, 7.7% more than the 2019-21 biennium

Some context behind the numbers:

  • Cumulative real estate excise taxes (REET) were $25 million (8.0%) higher than forecasted.
  • Revenue Act taxes, which consist of sales, use, business and occupation (B&O), utility and non-cigarette tobacco products, make up the bulk of the GF-S revenue. Collections were $131 million (2.7%) higher than forecasted.

In July the ERFC released an economic & revenue update that showed a further increase in GF-S revenue collections. Here is how this update compares:

  • GF-S revenue collections for June 11 through July 10 were $41.1 million (2.4%) above the June forecast.
  • Revenue Act tax collections for the current period were $39.3 million (3.0%) higher than the June forecast.

Washington continues to lead the country in personal income growth. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income estimates for the first quarter of 2018. These estimates showed Washington personal income rose to $434. 1 billion in the first quarter 2018 compared to $426.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017. With 7.4% growth rate, Washington was the highest among the states and the District of Columbia.

Check back with the OPBlog in September for future updates on revenue forecasts.

UW’s Adopted FY19 Operating Budget and Tuition Rates

Posted under OPB News and Announcements, UW Budget by Jed Bradley 

On June 7, the Board of Regents adopted the UW’s Fiscal Year 2019 (FY19) Operating Budget. The budget includes final 2018-19 tuition rates and expected revenue and proposed expenditures by budget area. Annual and quarterly tuition and fee schedules have been posted. Supplementary documents can be found on OPB’s Annual Budgets page.

In conjunction with the FY19 Operating Budget, OPB has updated the estimated 2018-19 cost of attendance for 1st year UW undergraduates. This shows estimated student expenses across UW’s three campuses for:  tuition, mandatory student fees, room & board, books, personal expenses, and transportation. A printable PDF version can be found here. Please note that students often pay far less than the amounts shown after accounting for grant and scholarship aid. Please visit the Office of Student Financial Aid website for more information regarding student budgets and net price.

Public Profiles – New Interactive Dashboards Now Available!

Posted under Higher Ed Research, Institutional Research, OPB News and Announcements by Lauren Hatchett 

In May 2018, in collaboration with UW-IT’s Enterprise Information, Integration and Analytics (EIIA) unit, the Office of Planning and Budgeting (OPB) relaunched Public Profiles, which are now five interactive dashboards including:

All dashboards, except Degrees Production Trends (which is refreshed every August), are refreshed with new data every academic quarter after census day. The data is sourced from the University of Washington’s Enterprise Data Warehouse (EDW). The numbers presented in all dashboards have been approved by OPB and reconcile against internal institutional dashboards – UW Profiles (requires access to EDW).

These dashboards act as the University of Washington’s “Institutional Fact Book.”  Anyone with the access to the internet can view these dashboards using their preferred browser. Explore the dashboards: http://opb.washington.edu/uw-profiles-information

Check back for additional dashboards and visualizations as they become available. Updates regarding these dashboards are also provided by UW-IT on their News page.

Please contact uwprofiles@uw.edu with any questions or for help using these dashboards.

OPB Briefs: 2018 Bill and Fiscal Note Summaries Now Available

Posted under OPB News and Announcements, State Legislature by Lauren Hatchett 

Date: April 5, 2018

OPB has posted two summaries, recapping the 2018 state legislative session, under the “Briefs” tab of the OPB website:

The 2018 Session Bill Summary lists the bills OPB tracked that were passed by the legislature. Links to veto messages are provided for bills that were partially vetoed by the Governor. Of the 775 bills that OPB tracked in the 2018 legislative session, 82 passed into law.

The 2018 Session Fiscal Note Summary lists the fiscal notes – evaluations of the fiscal impact of a bill proposal – that OPB completed on behalf of the UW (with the help of subject matter experts across the University) during the session. All fiscal notes are requested by legislative staff through the Office of Financial Management (OFM) in Olympia to guide legislative decision-making. This session, OPB responded to 145 fiscal note requests from OFM, breaking a record for the most in a legislative session.

 

OPB Brief on Compromise 2018 Supplemental Budgets

Posted under State Legislature, UW Budget by Jed Bradley 

Leadership in the state House and Senate released their compromise 2018 supplemental budget proposals earlier this week—the capital proposal came out on Tuesday evening and the operating proposal on Wednesday evening.  With the release of these budgets, and with their subsequent passage by the legislature, lawmakers ended the legislative session on time, for the first time since 2014.

The compromise budgets make changes to the recently approved 2017-19 biennial capital budget, as well as the 2017-19 biennial operating budget, which was approved last June. An OPB brief comparing the compromise budgets to prior proposals from the House, Senate, and Governor is now available here.

In the coming weeks, OPB will post summaries of approved legislative proposals that were tracked by the University, as well as fiscal notes (objective estimates of a bill proposal’s fiscal impact on the University) that were completed during the 2018 session. Those will be posted on the OPB briefs page.

OPB Brief on Senate and House Leadership 2018 Supplemental Budget Proposals

Posted under State Legislature, UW Budget by Jed Bradley 

On Monday, leadership in the Senate released their 2018 supplemental operating and capital budget proposals. On Tuesday and Wednesday, leadership in the House followed with the release of their 2018 supplemental operating and capital budget proposals. The supplemental proposals include technical corrections and minor appropriation changes to the recently approved 2017-19 biennial capital budget, as well as the 2017-19 biennial operating budget, which was approved last June. They also build off Governor Jay Inslee’s proposals, which he released in December.

Please see this OPB brief for a detailed comparison of the supplemental budget proposals released thus far.

As a reminder, now that the House and the Senate have offered competing proposals, lawmakers will work toward negotiating and passing compromise budgets by the scheduled end of session, on March 8, 2018. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates during the remainder of the 2018 legislative session.

 

 

February Revenue Forecast Shows Largest Increase since Recession

Posted under Revenue Forecast, State Legislature by Lauren Hatchett 

Today, the Washington state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released their February revenue forecast. The projected General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast for the 2017-19 biennium increased by $647 million. Projected revenue collections for the 2019-21 biennium have also increased by $671 million. According to the Governor’s Office of Financial Management (OFM), this forecast is the “largest quarterly increase for the state since before the Great Recession.”

Here is a quick summary of the total projected GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $44.213 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 15.4% more than that of the 2015-17 biennium.
  • $48.253 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 9.1% more than expected 2017-19 biennial.
  • The initial forecast for the 2021-23 biennium is $51.932 billion, an increase of 7.6% over that of the 2019-21 biennium

Behind the numbers:

  • Cumulative major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections from November 11, 2017 through February 10, 2018 were $185 million (3.5%) higher than forecasted in November.
  • The Washington economy saw strong housing construction and home price appreciation. Cumulative real estate excise taxes (REET) came in $44 million (21.1%) higher than forecasted. Projected property tax receipts are also 3% higher than expected.
  • For the first time in nearly three years, Washington exports increased (0.6%) in the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • The forecast anticipates continued but slowing growth in employment (2.2%) and personal income (4.6%). Disposable personal income is also higher than assumed (5.0%) than November because of federal tax cuts.

We expect that the majority leadership in the House and Senate will release budget proposals early next week. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates!

Capital Budget Moving Through Senate

Posted under Capital, OPB News and Announcements, State Legislature, UW Budget by Kelsey Rote 

A proposed state capital budget, SB 6090, passed out of the Senate Committee on Ways & Means with substitutes and may be voted on soon.  Last session, lawmakers came to a compromise on a proposed capital budget, but it was ultimately not passed due to a disagreement over a rural water rights issue. This proposal is the same as that proposed compromise, except it includes language proposed by the Governor before this session that would allow the UW and other agencies to be reimbursed for capital expenditures that occurred on or after July 1, 2017 in the absence of an approved capital budget last year.  A similar process is occurring in the House with HB 1075.  OPB will monitor any changes that occur on the House or Senate floor on passage of the budget(s).

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the legislative session, including the capital budget.

New OPB Briefs: Published Price vs. Net Price, Differential Tuition, and Activity Based Budgeting

Posted under Higher Ed Policy, OPB News and Announcements by Kelsey Rote 

OPB has released two new briefs.

The Published Price vs. Net Price brief is an updated version of a brief we posted in June, reflecting the newest available data.  The brief includes sector-wide data on trends in published price and net price for public and private four-year colleges and institutions, a description of how declining state investment in higher education has spurred tuition increases, and a table comparing the UW’s net price for resident undergraduates receiving grant or scholarship aid to its U.S. News & World Report top 25 research university peers.

OPB also has a new brief on policy and programmatic trends for differential tuition in higher education, and a recent brief on the Activity Based Budgeting (ABB) model used at the UW and other institutions.

OPBlog: Introduction

Posted under OPB News and Announcements by Kelsey Rote 

Hello! My name is Kelsey, and I am the new Policy Analyst with the Office of Planning and Budgeting. I have my Master of Social Work in Administration and Public Policy from the University of Washington, am a Returned Peace Corps Volunteer and a former intern at the City of Seattle’s Mayor’s Office, and most recently worked as a Research Analyst at the UW Evans School of Public Policy and Governance studying science education policy and programming. I’m excited to combine my experience working in higher education, local policies and funding, data analysis, and equity with the Policy, Planning, and State Operations team at OPB. I will be updating this site periodically with news, analysis, and commentary on higher education policy trends, local, state, and federal policies, budget announcements, and anything related to policies and finances at UW.

Please feel free to provide feedback along the way. I can be contacted at rotek@uw.edu. Thanks for reading!

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