Office of Planning and Budgeting

Another Depressing State Budget Forecast

Yesterday, Governor Gregoire’s budget office issued a lackluster four-year revenue and expenditure outlook for the state’s near general fund. The coming 2013-15 biennium (FY14 & FY15), for which the Governor will release a budget in December, comes up short on anticipated revenue and long on expenditures. Before accounting for required increases in K12, across-the-board salary increases, and minor increases to financial aid spending, the anticipated deficit for both years of the coming biennium is $1.7 billion. If the Legislature appropriates funds from the budget stabilization account, the biennial deficit shrinks to $956 million. The deficit was calculated based on the assumption that near general fund revenue will grow 2.2% in FY14 and 4.4% in FY15.

Expenditure assumptions include the backfill of an equivalent 3% salary reduction in each of the prior two fiscal years (FY12 & FY13). In other words, it is presumed that the Legislature will backfill the UW’s budget by approximately $12 million per year to replace the temporary salary-related reductions it imposed on the University during the prior biennium. However, without an infusion of revenue, the Legislature will not be able to fund required K12 policy enhancements, financial aid, or salary increases.

The outlook serves as a reminder that the state’s economy remains tenuous and even a minor replenishment of higher education spending is questionable.

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