Office of Planning and Budgeting

November Revenue Forecast Predicts Moderate Growth

On Wednesday, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council released its November revenue forecast, which projected a slight increase to General Fund-State (GF-S) collections over the September revenue forecast. The GF-S revenue forecast increased by $113 million for the current 2015-17 biennium and $30 million for the 2017-19 biennium.

  • Final GF-S revenue collections for the 2013-15 biennium were $33.666 billion.
  • Total projected GF-S revenue for the 2015-17 biennium is now $37.204 billion, 10.5 percent more than the 2013-15 biennium.
  • Total projected GF-S revenue for the 2017-19 biennium is now $40.567 billion, 9 percent more than the 2015-17 biennium.

Behind the numbers:

  • The forecast attributes the higher projections to strong performance in auto sales and service-providing industries.
  • Cannabis revenue from Clark County fell after Oregon legalized marijuana, but statewide revenues have continued to grow.
  • Concerns cited in the forecast include weaker-than-expected job growth, a dip in exports, and a manufacturing decline in the United States and Washington state.
  • The forecast assumes that the Federal Reserve will gradually increase interest rates starting in December.

According to a Spokesman Review article, expenditures in the 2015-17 biennium are expected to exceed the $37.204 billion in expected revenue. Further complications include a costly wildfire season, the $100,000 per-day fine that the state Supreme Court levied on the Legislature for failing to come up with a plan to boost public school funding, and voter approval of Initiative 1366, which will reduce state sales tax by 1 percent if the Legislature doesn’t approve a constitutional amendment to require a two-thirds vote for tax increases.  David Schumacher, director of the Office of Financial Management (OFM) is quoted in the Spokesman Review article as saying, “What this means, of course, is that there will be very little room for new spending in this year’s supplemental budget.”

Governor Jay Inslee will use the November revenue forecast to craft his 2015-17 supplemental budget proposal, which is expected to be released in December. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on the Governor’s budget proposal when it is released.

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