Security interests seek to identify potential flash points for geopolitical conflict in particular areas. Russia's unprecedented mortality and morbidity rates, and other related indications of social volatility, illustrate an institutional decay that may have value in predicting such events. This paper considers an array of evidence that rapid changes in health status may contribute to political behaviors at different scales. Predicting a flash point, based on conditions attributed to medical problems, is a new approach to theorizing potential geopolitical events. One of Russia's potential threats to the world may lie not in its military capacity, but in its deteriorating health population. As a developing theory, this work may help researchers who are planning conducting work in global conflict prevention in a number of the world's regions.