UW Aquatic & Fishery Sciences Quantitative Seminar

Dan Ovando

University of California Santa Barbara

How to Have Your Fish and Eat Them Too: Methods and Preliminary Results of an Assessment of the Future of Global Fisheries

Abstract

There are many competing narratives about the current state and future trajectory of the world's fisheries. We compile data from 4,718 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global catch, to provide the most comprehensive picture to date of where global fisheries are, and where they might be going. We merge data from the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database with fisheries data from the FAO to synthesize a global database of fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current status and reference points using a panel regression analysis paired to a structural fisheries model. We then determine a of series of fishery-specific policy functions designed to maximize objectives such as profits and food. We also consider the effects of institutional reforms such as catch shares. We use a bioeconomic model to project the future of each individual fishery under each of their customized policies, and compare the profit, food, and conservation outcomes of each policy against current and "business as usual" scenarios. Our results show that common-sense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve ecosystem health while increasing food security and profits.