UW Aquatic & Fishery Sciences Quantitative Seminar

Austin Phillips

Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, UW

Incorporating acclimation into conservation during climate change

Abstract

Species now face many environmental changes that affect survival. Trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are moving suitable habitats at an unprecedented rate. To avoid extinction, species can disperse, acclimate, or adapt. Predicting population dynamics when multiple responses are possible (dispersal, acclimation, adaptation) presents a challenge for both modelers and managers. While many theoretical frameworks exist that explore multiple responses, corresponding tools for optimal management are lacking. I will present a site selection model based on mathematical programming that determines an optimal management plan for species that can both disperse and acclimate in response to rising temperatures. The model involves a nonlinear feedback between population dynamics and management decisions over space and time. As a case study, I examine the endangered butterfly species Parnassius apollo at a set of sites in the Swiss Alps. We will see that accounting for multiple species responses greatly improves managers’ conservation ability under a limited budget.