UW Aquatic & Fishery Sciences Quantitative Seminar

Jon Wakefield

Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Washington

The Modeling of Pathogen-Specific Counts for Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease

Abstract

In this talk I will describe a variety of approaches to analyzing surveillance data on cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) collected in China over 2009-2011. HFMD arises due to different enteroviruses and cases can be clinically classified as either mild or severe. While clinical illness may be measured on the majority of a population, along with disease severity, the specific pathogen responsible will often be gathered on only a small subsample of individuals, sampled on the basis of disease severity. After a review of existing techniques, various modeling approaches will be discussed with a variety of aims including: modeling the probabilities of HFMD by pathogen and time; modeling the probabilities of severity given pathogen-specific disease; the prediction of future disease burden.