UW Aquatic & Fishery Sciences Quantitative Seminar

Eric Ward

NOAA, SAFS (affiliate professor)

Patterns of individual level catch diversification and relationships with revenue and variability in Alaskan commercial fisheries

Abstract

Several recent studies have highlighted that revenue variability in Alaskan fisheries is reduced in communities and fisheries that have higher diversity of commercial catches. As part of an NCEAS project investigating the lasting effects of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill, we have been interested in examining similar relationships at the level of individual fishers. In addition to quantifying potential impacts of EVOS on the mean or variability of individual revenues, we're also interested in how these impacts compare to other external perturbations that may affect the revenues of individuals (environmental variation, management changes such as limited entry or IFQs, economic drivers such as price shocks). Using data from 1985 - 2014, we've constructed two hierarchical models that simultaneously model effects of diversification on the mean and variance of annual revenue. In the first, we'll examine how the adoption of different 'fishing - strategies' has affected the risk (and return) of individuals in all commercial fisheries. Second, we'll focus on individuals who exclusively target salmon to quantify potentially time-varying benefits of diversification.