Notes

Outline

Techniques for Preparing Alternative Road Access Policies for Steep and Mountainous Terrain Weikko S. Jaross Forest Engineering, University of Washington & Department of Natural Resources, Washington

Overview Context of Research Trends in Forest Practices Harvest Planning Policies Policy Analysis Techniques Time and Motion Studies Simulations

Trends in Forest Practices Increased Road Activities and Costs Reduced Harvest Densities (Sold timber sales for Westside DNR managed lands)

DNR-Westside Road Activities

DNR-Westside Harvest Densities

Policy Analysis Techniques

Transaction Evidence

Marketability of DNR Roads

Harvest Planning Policies Objective Improve sustainability, efficiency, and marketability Strategies Seek and observe feasible alternatives Promote agreeable technologies Set design standards that aim to meet the objective

Cost & Production Model

Deterministic Cost Curve

Time and Motion Studies (TR-127)

Average Delay (TR-127)

Average Speed (TR-127)

Weibull Probability Distribution

Weibull Parameter Estimation

Simulation Model

Ten Cycle Elements

Coefficient of Determination

Comparing Results

Comparing Stats

Risk Analysis

Conclusions Trends in Forest Practices Achieving sustainability, efficiency, and marketability Balancing harvest densities and road activities Policy Analysis of Logging Production (example) Stochastic Simulation and Queuing Theory Improved representation of uncertainty (Weibull)