Notes

Outline

Forecasting Future Global Harvesting Requirements by using the Delphi Technique Michal Brink Senior Manager, Forest Engineering SAFCOL

Presentation Overview Background and scope of the study Data collection method and trend establishment for forecasting Global change drivers of timber harvesting technology Changes in harvesting systems, planning and monitoring Contracting of harvesting operations Future requirements of harvesting foresters and logging contractors Summary and conclusions

Background and Scope Change is driving the world of today

An Emphasis on Global Aspects of Forestry

Value Chain Development of a Method to Forecast Future Systems in the Forest Engineering Value Chain and Application in the South African Context

Data Collection The Delphi Technique Method used for achieving a structured interaction between carefully selected experts and the technology forecaster Utilizes several rounds of a questionnaire with controlled feedback

Criteria Used in Selecting Countries and Panel Members Current producers of harvesting technology Potential producers of harvesting technology Countries that have expanded or are currently expanding their plantation forestry areas

52% of the Global Annual Industrial Roundwood Production from Countries in Delphi Study

The Questionnaires First Round Used to begin the interaction process between panel members and the forecaster Combination of closed and open ended questions Used to expand the criteria that could be important to the forecast

The Questionnaires Second Round Panel members provided with feedback Completed some questions again including additional criteria One additional question added about logging contractors

The Questionnaires Third Round Panel members provided with feedback Allowed for consolidation of some criteria Completed questions again One additional question added on the size of future timber harvesting contracts

Results

In the last decade, what factors have contributed most significantly to change?

In the next decade, what factors have contributed most significantly to change?

The Delphi Study results indicate that globally: Environmentally sound harvesting will become more important in the next 10 years Technology breakthroughs will continue to increase productivity The cost of labor and machines will continue to increase, and affect harvesting system selection

What will be the greatest changes in harvesting systems by the year 2010?

Five Highest Ranked Changes In Harvesting Systems Non-timber values Machine/terrain interactions Increase in thinning/partial cuts

Estimated Machine Sales and Machine Substitution Trends Forwarder vs. rubber tire skidder Swing boom feller buncher vs. drive-to-tree feller buncher Single-grip harvester vs. feller buncher

Forwarder vs. Rubber Tire Skidder

Swing Boom Feller Buncher vs. Drive-to-Tree Feller Buncher

Single-grip Harvester vs. Feller Buncher

Outsourcing vs. In-House Logging Operations

Timber Harvesting Contract Size

What are the Future Requirements (knowledge and skills) for Harvesting Foresters and Logging Contractors?

Six Highest Ranked Requirements for a Harvesting Forester: Inter-personal communication Management practices Harvest planning Supply chain cost and value management Business management

Summary and Conclusions Most prominent change drivers affecting timber harvesting systems: Environmental impacts Technological/productivity improvements Harvesting equipment trends over the last decade Forwarders gain in market share over rubber tire skidders Swing boom feller bunchers gain over drive to tree feller bunchers Single-grip harvesters gain over feller bunchers

Summary and Conclusions Increase in contracting of harvest operations and increase in size of contracts Important knowledge and skill attributes for harvesting foresters Interpersonal communications Operations management and business practices Harvest planning and supply chain management Environmental and resource management

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