Our research in global change focuses on ongoing and future effects of climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest, especially on high-altitude systems in national parks and other public lands. This program has been in place for over 20 years, evolving from local empirical studies, through a wider application of empirical and modeling studies: Climate-Landscape Interactions on a Mountain Ecosystem Transect, or CLIMET. Over the past 12 years we have been the Pacific Northwest hub of the Western Mountain Initiative, a competitively funded consortium of researchers across the West working at multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Field-based Studies

Tree growth and regeneration [Peterson and many early students]
Due to extreme environmental conditions at high altitudes, the growth and distribution of subalpine tree species is strongly limited by precipitation and temperature, making them an appropriate subject for analysis of responses to climate. Regeneration of tree species is also very responsive to climatic patterns, and it ultimately determines the distribution and abundance of vegetation in mountainous environments.

At high elevations in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), tree growth responds negatively to winter precipitation, which is considerably more important than temperature. Similarly, winter precipitation is the most important variable affecting tree regeneration in the subalpine zone. Although most climate change scenarios and modeling emphasize how temperature changes would affect ecosystems, in this region precipitation patterns will have a greater impact than temperature on subalpine forests. Responses are not uniform along latitudinal or elevational gradients, however; trees at their northern or upper range limits are the most limited by winter precipitation, whereas for trees at their southern or lower limits the added moisture can facilitate growth (Peterson and Peterson 2001).

Studies of regeneration of subalpine tree species were conducted in Olympic National Park (subalpine fir, Pacific silver fir, mountain hemlock) and Mount Rainier National Park (subalpine fir). The optimal climate for regeneration varies by species and by local climate, and regeneration is also strongly associated with convex landforms and ericaceous vegetation. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many locations. This pattern of establishment and movement of treeline with respect to climatic patterns during the Holocene was documented in an extensive review of ecological and paleoecological literature.

Soil carbon storage  [Prichard, Sanscrainte]
Studies were conducted in 2 study areas, each having 3 study sites, in the Olympic Mountains: (1) northeast--low precipitation, dominated by subalpine fir forest and grass-sedge meadows, (2) southwest--high precipitation, dominated by mountain hemlock forest and ericaceous meadows. Soils in subalpine ecosystems clearly have a large capacity for carbon storage, although storage could decrease if future climate is warmer and drier. Increased fire disturbance would reduce aboveground and probably long-term belowground carbon storage.

Glacier mass balance  [Marcinkowski]
Mountain hemlock growth chronologies were used to reconstruct the mass balance of South Glacier, an alpine glacier in the North Cascade Range of Washington State. Comparison with other reconstructions suggests that changes in South Cascade Glacier mass balance are good indicators of regional balance fluctuations, and that glaciers in the Pacific Northwest are responding to similarly to regional external climate forcings.  The current rate of decline, from 2000 to 2009, in the reconstructed mass balance record has been faster than any other decline in a century.

Fire in the subalpine zone: past and present  [Prichard, Cansler]
A 10,500-yr fire and vegetation history of a montane site in the North Cascade Range, Washington State was reconstructed based on lake sediment charcoal, macrofossil, and pollen records. Fire frequency varies throughout the record, with significantly shorter mean fire return intervals in the early Holocene than the mid and late Holocene. Charcoal peaks are significantly correlated with an initial increase in macrofossil accumulation rates followed by a decrease, likely corresponding to tree mortality following fire. Climate was seen to be a key driver in vegetation and fire regimes over millennial time scales. Fire and other disturbances altered forest vegetation at shorter time scales, and vegetation may have mediated local fire regimes. For example, dominance of P. contorta in the early Holocene forests may have been reinforced by its susceptibility to frequent stand-replacing fires.

An ongoing study of recent fires across the PNW addresses the questions: (1) will regional-scale responses of fire regimes to climate change carry over into the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE)? (2) will treelines move in response to the interaction of climate change and fire regimes, and if so, in which direction(s) and how much?  Fires in the ATE are mostly small and isolated, and changes in their size, severity, and spatial pattern could have significant effects on subalpine ecosystems.

Climate and growth of Douglas-fir  [Littell, C Restaino]
Douglas-fir is certainly the most important tree species commercially in the PNW, but also important ecologically.  Most commercial operations (plantations) are in low-elevation forests, where Douglas-fir response to climate is complacent, but Douglas-fir’s range extends into the lower subalpine zone in many locations, and across the West it is everything from a riparian species to a dry-forest dominant. Two studies, one PNW-wide and the other West-wide, took advantage of a unique multi-scale sampling design to identify climate-growth associations for Douglas-fir along wet-dry gradients within watersheds and along elevational and latitudinal gradients among watersheds and ecoregions. Across most of its range, excluding maritime low-elevation PNW forests, Douglas-fir is water-limited, and associated climate variables (e.g., summer temperature, water-balance deficit, vapor-pressure deficit) are those most strongly correlated with annual growth.  This portends West-wide declines in productivity in a warner and drier climate.

Modeling studies

Climate and species distributions  [McKenzie, Albright]
At broad scales, tree-species distributions are controlled by climate. Despite their many limitations, species distribution models based on “bioclimatic envelopes” can identify key climatic constraints on species occurrence and explicit measures of the uncertainties in those constraints. Two studies looked at climatic controls on conifer species. One used a traditional statistical approach (binomial GLMs) and the other took a hybrid approach that combined multivariate techniques and qualitative imputation across regional scales. Better fitting models - those in which we had higher confidence — were associated with species that have clearly defined limiting factors.  For example, mountain hemlock, strongly limited by winter snowpack, and ponderosa pine, strongly limited by summer moisture, provided better models than species, such as lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce, that are controlled by multiple factors at different spatial scales.

Fire and climate change [Gedalof, McKenzie, Littell, Stavros, J Restaino, Raymond]
New fire regimes driven by climate change will be a significant force in mountain ecosystems into the future. Lab scientists have developed models to predict future fire extent, changes in air quality, response to regional synoptic weather, and the probability of extreme events (“megafires”). In 2004 we published the first paper to make exploit area-burned projections for the West. Though crude and simplistic, these models informed a pulse of similar efforts worldwide over the next five years. In 2009, we downscaled the 2004 database to make more ecologically informed projections about area burned in the West, identifying clear regional contrasts between direct climate drivers of fire and climate-based facilitation of fire via vegetation productivity.

Lab scientists built models that identified the different drivers of extreme fire events in the PNW, showing that naive GCM-based projections for this diverse ecoregion will not capture regional variation. We also built an integrated modeling system to project future air quality changes from new fire regimes, and identified likely “hotspots” of degraded air quality in airspeeds downstream from PNW fires. We projected the probabilities of megafires under different climate-change scenarios across the West, concluding that the PNW was one of the regions more vulnerable to these extreme events.

Two studies modeled the effects of climate-driven changes in fire regimes on carbon dynamics and future carbon sequestration. Effects are highly variable across ecoregional types and among different carbon pools, but projected increases in fire extent carry, on average, the likelihood of forests becoming more of a carbon source in a warming climate.

Adaptation to climate change [Peterson, Halofsky]
With considerable global warming already “in the pipeline”, forced by current levels of atmospheric CO2, land-management agencies need to prepare for rapid changes in ecosystem structure and function.  FME scientists have organized and led workshops across the West to brainstorm and develop tangible strategies for local- and regional-scale management of federal, state, and tribal lands to adapt to climate change. We engage multiple stakeholders in science-based approaches and publish workshop outcomes in technical agency documents and peer-reviewed journals.

2014

Creutzburg, M.K., J.E. Halofsky, J.S. Halofsky, and T.A. Christopher. 2014. Climate change and land management in the rangelands of central Oregon. Environmental Management. DOI 10.1007/s00267-014-0362-3.

French, N.H.F., D. McKenzie, T. Erickson, B. Koziol, M. Billmire, K.A. Endsley, N.K. Yager Scheinerman, L. Jenkins, M.E. Miller, R.D. Ottmar, and S.J. Prichard. 2014. Modeling regional-scale wildland fire emissions with the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System. Earth Interactions 18 (Paper 16).

French, N.H.F., D. McKenzie, R.D. Ottmar, J.L. McCarthy, R.A. Norheim, N. Hammermesh, and A.J. Soja. 2014. A US national fuels database and map for calculating carbon emissions from wildland and prescribed fire. Pages 522-529 in Fourth Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference Proceedings. Raleigh, NC, Feb 18-22, 2013, and St. Petersburg, Russia, July 1-4, 2013.

Halofsky, J.S., J.E. Halofsky, T. Burcsu, and M.A. Hemstrom. 2014. Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate-management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape. Ecological Applications 24:1908-1925.

Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, L.A. Joyce, C.I. Millar, J.M. Rice, and C.W. Swanston. 2014. Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions of the United States. In Sample, V.A. and R.P. Bixler (eds.), Forest conservation and management in the anthropocene: conference proceedings. Proceedings RMRS-P-71. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO. 494 p.

Kang, S., Running, S.W., Kimball, J.S., Fagre, D.B., Michaelis, A., Peterson, D.L., Halofsky, J.E., and Hong, S. 2014. Effects of spatial and temporal climatic variability on terrestrial carbon and water fluxes in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Environmental Modelling and Software 51: 228-239.

McKenzie, D., U. Shankar, R.E. Keane, E.N. Stavros, W.E. Heilman, D.G. Fox, and A.C. Riebau. 2014. Smoke consequences of new fire regimes driven by climate change. Earth’s Future. DOI 10.1002/2013EF000180.

Stavros, E.N., J. Abatzoglou, N.A. Larkin, and D. McKenzie. 2014. Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6.

Stavros, E.N., D. McKenzie, and N.A. Larkin. 2014. The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. WIREs Climate Change doi: 10.1002/wcc.303.

Sample, A., Halofsky, J.E., and Peterson, D.L. 2014. U.S. strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making. Annals of Forest Science. In press. DOI 10.1007/s13595-013-0288-6.

Stavros, E.N., J. Abatzoglou, N.A. Larkin, D. McKenzie, and A Steel. 2014. Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous Western USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13169.

2013

Albright, W.L., and Peterson, D.L. 2013. Tree growth and climate in the Pacific Northwest, North America: a broad-scale analysis of changing growth environments. Journal of Biogeography 40:2119-2133.

Halofsky, J.E., M.A. Hemstrom, D.R. Conklin, J.S. Halofsky, B.K. Kerns, and D. Bachelet. 2013. Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach. Ecological Modelling 266:131-143.

Iverson, L.R., and D. McKenzie. 2013. Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate – detecting, modeling, assisting. Landscape Ecology 28:879-889.

Wilsey, C.B., J.J. Lawler, E.P. Maurer, D. McKenzie, P.A. Townsend, R. Gwozdz, J.A. Freund, K. Hagmann, and K.M. Hutten. 2013. Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife. Journal of Fisheries and Wildlife Management 4:220-241.

2012

Peterson, D.L., and D. McKenzie. 2012. Understanding and adapting to new stress complexes in forest ecosystems. In W. Rodgers (ed.), Climate Change: A Reader. Carolina Academic Press, Durham, NC.

Littell, J.S., Peterson, D.L., Millar, C.I., and O’Halloran, K. 2012. U.S. national forests adapt to climate change through science-management partnerships. Climatic Change 110:269-296.

Peterson, D.L., Allen, C.D., Baron, J.S., Fagre, D.B., McKenzie, D., Stephenson, N.L., Fountain, A.G., Hicke, J.A., Malanson, G.P., Tague, C.L., and van Mantgem, P.J. 2012. Response of Western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: a collaborative research approach. In Ecological Consequences of Climate Change: Mechanisms, Conservation, and Management. Taylor and Francis Publishing, New York, NY.

2011

McKenzie, D., and J.S. Littell. 2011. Climate change and wilderness fire regimes. International Journal of Wilderness 17:22-27,31.

Littell, J.S., D. McKenzie, B.K. Kerns, S.A. Cushman, and C.B. Shaw. 2011. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change. Ecosphere 2(9):102. doi:10.1890/ES11-00114.1.

McKenzie, D., F.A. Heinsch, and W.E. Heilman. 2011. Wildland Fire and Climate Change. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/topics/wildfire/index.shtml.

Chmura, D.J., Anderson, P.D., Howe, G.T., Harrington, C.A., Halofsky, J.E., Peterson, D.L., Shaw, D.C., and St. Clair, B. 2011. Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management. Forest Ecology and Management 261:1121-1142.

Deal, R.L., Raymond, C.L., Peterson, D.L., and Glick, C. 2010. Ecosystem services and climate change: understanding the differences and identifying opportunities for carbon sequestration. Pages 9-25 in T.B. Jain and R.T. Graham (eds.), Integrated Management of Carbon Sequestration and Biomass Utilization Opportunities in a Changing Climate: Proceedings of the 2009 Silviculture Workshop. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-61. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO.

Halofsky, J.E., Peterson, D.L., Furniss, M.J., Joyce, L.A., Millar, C.I., and Neilson, R.P. 2011. A workshop approach to the development of climate change adaptation strategies and actions for natural resource management agencies in the U.S. Journal of Forestry 109:219-225.

Halofsky, J.E., Peterson, D.L., O’Halloran, K.A., and Hawkins Hoffman, C. 2011. Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-844. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR.

Peterson, D.L., Millar, C.I., Joyce, L.A., Furniss, M.J., Halofsky, J.E., Neilson, R.P., and Morelli, T.L. 2011. Responding to climate change in national forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report GTR-PNW-855.

Peterson, D.L., Allen, C.D., Baron, J.S., Fagre, D.B., McKenzie, D., Stephenson, N.L., Fountain, A.G., Hicke, J.A., Malanson, G.P., Tague, C.L., and van Mantgem, P.J.. 2011. Response of Western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: a collaborative research approach. Pages 163-190 in J. Bellant and E. Beever (eds.), Ecological Consequences of Climate Change: Mechanisms, Conservation, and Management. Taylor and Francis Publishing, New York, NY.

Peterson, D.L., and McKenzie, D. 2011. Understanding and adapting to new stress complexes in forest ecosystems. In W. Rodgers (ed.), Climate Change: A Reader. Carolina Academic Press, Durham, NC.

2010

Littell, J.S., Peterson, D.L., and Tjoelker, M. 2010. Douglas-fir growth in mountain ecosystems: water limits tree growth from stand to region. Ecological Monographs 78: 349-368.

McKenzie, D. 2010. The effects of climatic change and wildland fires on air quality in national parks and wilderness areas. Fire Management Today 70:26-28.

Littell, J.S., E.A. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J.A. Hicke, J.A. Lutz, R.A. Norheim, and M.M. Elsner. 2010. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Climatic Change 102:129-158.

2009

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Littell. 2009. Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America. In S.V. Krupa (ed.), Developments in Environmental Science, Vol. 8, Wild Land Fires and Air Pollution, A. Bytnerowicz, M. Arbaugh, A. Riebau, and C. Anderson (eds.). Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Science, Ltd. pp. 319-337.

Baron, J.S., L. Gunderson, C.D. Allen, E. Fleishman, D. McKenzie, L.A. Meyerson,  J. Oropeza, and N. Stephenson. 2009.  Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change. Environmental Management DOI 10.1007/s00267-009-9296-6.

Joyce, L.A., Blate, G.M., Littell, J.S., McNulty, S.G., Millar, C.I., Moser, S.C., Neilson, R.P., and Peterson, D.L. 2009. Managing for multiple resources under climate change. Environmental Management 44: 1022-1032.

Chen, J., J. Avise, B. Lamb, E.P. Salathé, C.F. Mass, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, J-F. Lamarque, S.M. O'Neill, D. McKenzie, and N. Larkin. 2009. The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 9:1125-1141.

Littell, J.S., E.E. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J.A. Hicke, J.A. Lutz, R.A. Norheim, and M. McGuire Elsner. 2009. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Chapter 7 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Baron, J.S., Tague, C.L., Christensen, L., Stephenson, N.L., Allen, C.D., Fagre, D.B., Peterson, D.L., and McKenzie, D. 2009. Addressing the vulnerability of Western mountain ecosystems and water resources to climate change with RHESSys, the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System. Page 3 in S.R. Brady (ed.), Proceedings of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference "Painting the Big Picture." U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5013. Online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2009/5013.

Blate, G.M., Joyce, L.A., Julius, S., Littell, J.S., McNulty, S.G., Millar, C.I., Moser, S.C., Neilson, R.P., O'Halloran, K., Peterson, D.L., and West, J. 2009. Adapting to climate change in United States national forests. Unasylva 60: 57-62.

Furniss, M.J., Millar, C.I., Peterson, D.L., Joyce, L.A., Neilson, R.P., Halofsky, J.E., and Kerns, B.K. 2009. Adapting to climate change: a short course for land managers. Rep. PNW-GTR-789.

Littell, J.S. and Peterson. D.L. 2009. Pacific Northwest forests and climate. Western Forester 54:1-5.

2008

Heyerdahl, E.K., D. McKenzie, L.D. Daniels, A.E. Hessl, J.S. Littell, and N.J. Mantua. 2008. Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651–1900). International Journal of Wildland Fire 17:40-49.

Joyce, L.A., Blate, G.M., Littell, J.S., McNulty, S.G., Millar, C.I., Moser, S.C., Neilson, R.P., O'Halloran, K., and Peterson, D.L. 2008. National Forests. In Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. pp. 3-1-3-127. Notes: J.S. Baron, B. Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott [authors])

pre-2008

Cushman, S.A., D. McKenzie, D. L. Peterson, J.S. Littell, and K.S. McKelvey. 2007. Research agenda for integrated landscape modeling. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-194. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO.

McKenzie, D., and C.D. Allen. 2007. Climate change and disturbance regimes in western North America. EOS Transactions 88(21):227.

Fagre, D.B., Peterson, D.L., and McKenzie, D. 2007. Integrated research on climate change in mountain ecosystems: The CLIMET project. In Integrated Research and Management in Mountain Areas. pp. 257-271.

Malanson, G.P., Butler, D.R., Fagre, D.B., Walsh, S.J., Tomback, D.F., Daniels, L.D., Resler, L.M., Smith, W.K., Weiss, D.J., Peterson, D.L., Bunn, A.G., Hiemstra, C.A., Liptzin, D., Bourgeron, P.S., Shen, Z., and Millar, C.I. 2007. Alpine treeline of western North America: linking organism-to-landscape dynamics. Physical Geography 28: 378-396.

McKenzie, D., S.M. O’Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire. Ecological Modelling 199:278-288.

Holman, M.L., and Peterson, D.L. 2006. Sensitivity of forest growth to climatic variability in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere 36: 92-104.

Nakawatase, J.M., and Peterson, D.L. 2006. Spatial variability in forest growth - Climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere 36: 77-91.

Peterson, D.L., and Littell, J. 2006. Biological change in the global greenhouse - Climate Change and Biodiversity. Book review. Conservation Biology 20: 255.

Stephenson, N., Peterson, D.L., Fagre, D.B., Allen, C.D., McKenzie, D., Baron, J.S., and O'Brian, K. 2006. Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: The Western Mountain Initiative. Park Science 24: 24-29.

McKenzie, D., S.M. O’Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. How will climatic change affect air quality in parks and wilderness? In: D. Harmon, ed. Proceedings of the 2005 George Wright Society Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.

Burkett, V.R., Wilcox, D.A., Stottlemyer, R., Barrow, W., Fagre, D.B., Baron, J.S., Price, J., Nielsen, J.L., Allen, C.D., Peterson, D.L., Ruggerone, G., and Doyle, T. 2005. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications. Ecological Complexity 2: 357-394.

Case, M.J. and Peterson, D.L. 2005. Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 2743-2755.

Littell, J. and Peterson, D.L. 2005. A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change. Northwestern U. S. Forestry Chronicle 81: 369-374.

Strom, A., Francis, R.C., Mantua, N.J., Miles, E.L., and Peterson, D.L. 2005. Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 228: 167-178.

Fagre, D.B. and Peterson, D.L. 2005. Global-scale environmental changes in mountain protected areas: The CLIMET project. 23 Sept. 2004, Edited by L. Taylor and A. Ryall. Banff, Canada pp. 36-38.

Fagre, D.B., Running, S.W., Keane, R.E., and Peterson, D.L. 2005. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: a case study. In Global Change and Mountain Regions: An Overview of Current Knowledge. Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

Fagre, D.B., S.W. Running, R.E. Keane, and D.L. Peterson. 2004. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: a case study. Pages 455-466 in H. Bugmann and U. Huber (eds.), Global Change and Mountain Regions: A State-of-Knowledge Overview. Kluwer Academic Publishing, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

McKenzie, D., Z.M. Gedalof, D.L. Peterson, and P. Mote. 2004. Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18:890-902.

Gedalof, Z., Peterson, D.L., and Mantua, N.J. 2004. Columbia River flow and drought since 1750. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 40: 1579-1592.

Hessl, A.E. and Peterson, D.L. 2004. Interannual variability in aboveground tree growth in Stehekin River Watershed, North Cascade Range, Washington. Northwest Science 78: 204-213.

Hessl, A.E., Milesi, C., White, M.A., Peterson, D.L., and Keane, R.E. 2004. Ecophysiological parameters for Pacific Northwest trees. Rep. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-618.

Peterson, D.L., Innes, J.L., and O'Brian, K. 2004. Climate change, carbon, and forestry in northwestern North America. Rep. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-614.

McKenzie, D., D.W. Peterson, and D.L Peterson. 2003. Modelling conifer species distributions in mountain forests of the Pacific Northwest. Forestry Chronicle 79:253-258.

McKenzie, D., D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, and P.E. Thornton. 2003. Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington State, USA. Journal of Biogeography 30:1093-1108.

Fagre, D.B., D.L. Peterson, and A.E. Hessl. 2003. Taking the pulse of mountains: ecosystem responses to climatic variability. Climatic Change 59:263-282.

Sanscrainte, C.L., D.L. Peterson and S. McKay. 2003. Carbon storage in subalpine tree islands, North Cascade Range, Washington. Northwest Science 77:255-268.

Sanscrainte, C.L. and Peterson, D.L. 2003. Carbon storage and soil properties in late-successional and second-growth subalpine forests in the North Cascade Range, Washington. Northwest Science 77: 297-307.

Mote, P.W., E.A. Parson, A.F. Hamlet, W.S. Keeton, D. Lettenmaier, N. Mantua, D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, R. Slaughter, and A.K. Snover. 2003. Preparing for climatic change: the water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 61:45-88.

Gedalof, Z., Mantua, N.J., and Peterson, D.L. 2002. A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and coral. Geophysical Research Letters 29: 2204-2207.

Peterson, D.W., Peterson, D.L., and Ettl, G.J. 2002. Growth responses of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climatic variability in the Pacific Northwest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere 32: 1503-1517.

Fagre, D.B. and D.L. Peterson. 2002. Modeling and monitoring ecosystem responses to climate change in three North American mountain ranges. Pages 249-259 in C. Körner and E. Spehn (eds.), Global Mountain Biodiversity: Changes and Threats. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Peterson, D.W. and Peterson, D.L. 2001. Mountain hemlock growth responds to climatic variability at annual and decadal scales. Ecology 82: 3330-3345.

Edmonds, R.L., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Sources of climatic variability in river ecosystems. In R.C. Wissmar and P.A. Bisson (eds.), Strategies for Restoring River Ecosystems: Sources of Variability and Uncertainty in Natural and Managed Systems. American Fisheries Society. In press.

Fagre, D.B. and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Modeling and monitoring ecosystem responses to climate change in three North American mountain ranges. In C. Körner and E. Spehn (eds.), Global Mountain Biodiversity: Changes and Threats. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. In press.

McKenzie, D., A. Hessl, and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Recent growth in conifer species of western North America: assessing the spatial patterns of radial growth trends. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31:526-538.

Peterson, D.L. and R.D. Hammer. 2001. From open to closed canopy: a century of change in a Douglas-fir forest, Orcas Island, Washington. Northwest Science 75:262-269.

Ettl, G.J. and Peterson, D.L. 2001. Genetic variation of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in Olympic National Park, WA, USA: differentiation in response to an elevation gradient. Silvae Genetica 50: 145-153.

Fagre, D.B. and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Ecosystem dynamics and disturbance in mountain wildernesses: assessing vulnerability of natural resources to change. In D.N. Cole and S.F. McCool (eds.), Wilderness Science in a Time of Change. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-000. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT. In press.

Prichard, S.J., D.L. Peterson, and R.D. Hammer. 2000. Soil carbon storage in subalpine forest ecosytems of the Olympic Mountains. Soil Science Society of America Journal 64:1834-1845.

Tang, K., X. Feng, and G.J. Ettl. 2000. The variations in dD of tree rings and the implications for climatic reconstruction. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 64:1663-1673.

Peterson, D.L., D.G. Silsbee, and K.T. Redmond. 1999. Long-term hydrological patterns at Crater Lake, Oregon. Northwest Science 138:121-130.

Zolbrod, A.N. and D.L. Peterson. 1999. Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 29:1966-1978.

Peterson, D.L. 1998. Climate change: potential impacts on biological systems. Pages 135-136 in P.Calow (ed.), The Encyclopedia of Ecology and Environmental Management. Blackwell Science, London.

Peterson, D.L. 1998. Climate, limiting factors and environmental change in high-altitude forests of western North America. Pages 191-208 in M. Benistion and J.L. Innes (eds.), Climatic Variability and Extremes: The Impact on Forests. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.

Peterson, D.L. and V.T. Parker (eds.). 1998. Ecological Scale: Theory and Applications. Columbia University Press, New York, NY.

Peterson, D.L. and V.T. Parker. 1998. Dimensions of scale in ecology, resource management, and society. Pages 499-522 in D.L. Peterson and V.T. Parker (eds.), Ecological Scale: Theory and Applications. Columbia University Press, New York, NY.

Peterson, D.L., E.G. Schreiner, and N.M. Buckingham. 1997. Gradients, vegetation, and climate: spatial and temporal dynamics in mountains. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters 6:7-17.

Rochefort, R.M. and D.L. Peterson. 1996. Temporal and spatial distribution of trees in subalpine meadows of Mount Rainier National Park. Arctic and Alpine Research 28:52-59.

Ettl, G.J. and D.L. Peterson. 1995. Extreme climate and variation in tree growth: individualistic response in subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Global Change Biology 1: 231-241.

Ettl, G.J. and D.L. Peterson. 1995. Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA. Global Change Biology 1: 213-230.

Little, R.L., D.L. Peterson, D.G. Silsbee, L.J. Shainsky, and L.F. Bednar. 1995. Effects of climate on radial growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 25:724-735.

Peterson, D.L. and D.R. Johnson (eds.). 1995. Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North. Taylor and Francis, Washington, DC.

Peterson, D.L. and D.R. Johnson. 1995. Human ecology and climate change at northern latitudes. Pages 3-13 in D.L. Peterson and D.R. Johnson (eds.), Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North. Taylor and Francis, Washington, DC.

Peterson, D.L. and D.R. Johnson. 1995. An action plan for an uncertain future in the Far North. Pages 317-322 in D.L. Peterson and D.R. Johnson (eds.), Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North. Taylor and Francis, Washington, DC.

Peterson, D.W. and D.L. Peterson. 1995. Climatic influences on radial growth of subalpine larch in the North Cascade Mountains. Pages 268-271 in W.C. Schmidt and K.J. McDonald (eds.), Ecology and Management of Larix Forests: A Look Ahead, Proceedings of an International Symposium. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report GTR-INT-319. Intermountain Research Station, Logan, UT.

Peterson, D.L. 1994. Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America. Pages 234-243 in M. Beniston (ed.), Mountain Environments in Changing Climates. Routledge, London, UK.

Peterson, D.W. and D.L. Peterson. 1994. Effects of climate on radial growth of subalpine conifers in the North Cascade Mountains. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24:1921-1932.

Rochefort, R.M., R.L. Little, A. Woodward, and D.L. Peterson. 1994. Changes in the distribution of subalpine conifers in western North America: a review of climate and other factors. The Holocene 4:89-100.

Peterson, D.L., A. Woodward, E.G. Schreiner, and R.D. Hammer. 1993. Global environmental change in mountain protected areas: consequences for management. Pages 29-36 in L.S. Hamilton, D.P. Bauer, and H.F. Takeuchi (eds.), Parks, Peaks, and People. East-West Center, Honolulu, HI.

Peterson, D.L., M.J. Arbaugh, and L.J. Robinson. 1992. Tree growth in high elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Pages 269-273 in Proceedings of the International Conference on Tree Rings and the Environment, Ystad, Sweden. University of Lund, Lund, Sweden.

Ettl, G.J. and D.L. Peterson. 1991. Growth and genetic response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in a changing environment. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:357-359.

Peterson, D.L. 1991. Sensitivity of subalpine forests in the Pacific Northwest to global climate change. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:349-350.

Peterson, D.W. and D.L. Peterson. 1991. The response of tree growth to global climate change: subalpine forests of the North Cascade Mountains. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:347-348.

Rochefort, R.M. and D.L. Peterson. 1991. Tree establishment in subalpine meadows of Mount Rainier National Park. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:354-355.

Peterson, D.L., M.J. Arbaugh, L.J. Robinson, and B. Derderian. 1990. Growth trends of whitebark pine and lodgepole pine in a subalpine Sierra Nevada forest. Arctic and Alpine Research 22:233-243.