May 29, 2020

Causal Impact of Masks Policies Behavior on Early Covid-19 Pandemic in the U.S.

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

• [pre-print, not peer reviewed] Chernozhukov et al. constructed counterfactual causal models to evaluate the dynamic impact of various policies on behavioral responses relevant to COVID-19 control. They concluded that these policies (e.g., school, business, and restaurant closures) explain a large fraction of observed changes in social distancing behavior. They estimate that if all policies had been removed on April 1, it would have led to an additional 30– to 200-fold more cases and that nationally mandating face masks would have led to 30%-57% fewer reported cases by late May. 

Chernozhukov et al. (May 29, 2020). Causal Impact of Masks Policies Behavior on Early Covid-19 Pandemic in the U.S. Preprint downloaded May 29 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.27.20115139