{"id":10329,"date":"2021-06-10T10:37:19","date_gmt":"2021-06-10T17:37:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=10329"},"modified":"2021-06-11T10:38:18","modified_gmt":"2021-06-11T17:38:18","slug":"a-model-and-predictions-for-covid-19-considering-population-behavior-and-vaccination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2021\/06\/10\/a-model-and-predictions-for-covid-19-considering-population-behavior-and-vaccination\/","title":{"rendered":"A Model and Predictions for COVID-19 Considering Population Behavior and Vaccination"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model incorporating social behavioral changes in response to infection rates and vaccination rates suggests that a large increase in the sense of safety and a lowering of precautions due to vaccination to pre-pandemic levels could result in a surge of infections. However, the model predicted that new infections rates could approach zero by August 2021 in the US, based on an observed rate of vaccination of 0.3% of the population per day. Alternatively, slower vaccination rollout (0.1%\/day) combined with behavioral changes due to a high sense of safety could lead to a substantial rise in cases. The model accurately reproduced COVID-19 case data from April 2020 to January 2021 in 6 US populations, including New York City, California, and Massachusetts.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Usherwood et al.\u00a0(June 8, 2021). A Model and Predictions for COVID-19 Considering Population Behavior and Vaccination. Scientific Reports. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-021-91514-7\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-021-91514-7<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model incorporating social behavioral changes in response to infection rates and vaccination rates suggests that a large increase in the sense of safety and a lowering of precautions due to vaccination to pre-pandemic levels could result in a surge of infections. However, the model predicted that new infections rates could approach zero&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2021\/06\/10\/a-model-and-predictions-for-covid-19-considering-population-behavior-and-vaccination\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[208,187],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-10329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","tag-modeling-predictive","tag-vaccinations","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10329"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10329\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10330,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10329\/revisions\/10330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10329"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=10329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}