{"id":1282,"date":"2020-10-01T09:27:30","date_gmt":"2020-10-01T16:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=1282"},"modified":"2020-10-19T17:17:38","modified_gmt":"2020-10-20T00:17:38","slug":"expert-forecasts-of-covid-19-vaccine-development-timelines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/10\/01\/expert-forecasts-of-covid-19-vaccine-development-timelines\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Among 28 vaccine experts (20 Canada, 6 US) with 25 median years of experience working with vaccines (range 8\u201342), 53% said the pace of COVID-19 research is increasing the potential for errors. The median probability forecast that a vaccine would receive a black box warning label for a widely deployed vaccine was 30% and that the first field study would not report a positive efficacy endpoint was 40%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Kane et al. (Sept 28, 2020). Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines. Journal of General Internal Medicine. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11606-020-06244-9\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11606-020-06244-9<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Among 28 vaccine experts (20 Canada, 6 US) with 25 median years of experience working with vaccines (range 8\u201342), 53% said the pace of COVID-19 research is increasing the potential for errors. The median probability forecast that a vaccine would receive a black box warning label for a widely deployed vaccine was 30% and that&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/10\/01\/expert-forecasts-of-covid-19-vaccine-development-timelines\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[33],"topic":[31],"class_list":["post-1282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","tag-vaccines","topic-vaccines-and-immunity"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1282"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1283,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1282\/revisions\/1283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1282"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=1282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}