{"id":2512,"date":"2020-12-02T12:57:13","date_gmt":"2020-12-02T20:57:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=2512"},"modified":"2020-12-03T12:58:19","modified_gmt":"2020-12-03T20:58:19","slug":"a-covid-19-transmission-model-informing-medication-development-and-supply-chain-needs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/12\/02\/a-covid-19-transmission-model-informing-medication-development-and-supply-chain-needs\/","title":{"rendered":"A COVID-19 Transmission Model Informing Medication Development and Supply Chain Needs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>[Preprint, not peer reviewed] <\/i>A modified SEIR model using data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard estimated that 66% of global SARS-CoV-2 cases were asymptomatic; each symptomatic and asymptomatic case could infect 2 and 6 other people, respectively. 10% of cases were super-spreaders, who had a 2-fold higher risk of transmission rate than average. Mitigation strategies with a stringency index of \u226560% were required to reduce the reproduction ratio below 1. Without mitigation strategies, the mean maximum infection rate was 0.9 cases\/day (inter-country range 0.6-1.4).<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i>Lemenuel-Diot et al. (Dec 2, 2020). A COVID-19 Transmission Model Informing Medication Development and Supply Chain Needs. Pre-print downloaded Dec 2 from <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.11.23.20237404\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.11.23.20237404<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modified SEIR model using data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard estimated that 66% of global SARS-CoV-2 cases were asymptomatic; each symptomatic and asymptomatic case could infect 2 and 6 other people, respectively. 10% of cases were super-spreaders, who had a 2-fold higher risk of transmission rate than average&#8230;.<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/12\/02\/a-covid-19-transmission-model-informing-medication-development-and-supply-chain-needs\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[47,38],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-2512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","tag-modeling-prediction","tag-transmission","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2512"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2512\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2513,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2512\/revisions\/2513"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2512"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=2512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}