{"id":2759,"date":"2020-12-15T15:14:24","date_gmt":"2020-12-15T23:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=2759"},"modified":"2020-12-16T15:15:31","modified_gmt":"2020-12-16T23:15:31","slug":"vaccines-that-prevent-sars-cov-2-transmission-may-prevent-or-dampen-a-spring-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-in-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/12\/15\/vaccines-that-prevent-sars-cov-2-transmission-may-prevent-or-dampen-a-spring-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-in-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed]<\/i> A model based on King County data shows that if the vaccine efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are primarily driven by complete protection against infection, then prevention of a fourth epidemic wave in Spring 2021 and a reduction of subsequent cases and deaths by 60% is likely to occur, assuming rapid vaccine rollout (at least 5,000 vaccinations per day). If vaccine efficacy is primarily driven by a reduction of symptoms despite breakthrough infection, then vaccination would need to be combined with other transmission control measures that prevent at least 50% of secondary infections in order to prevent a fourth wave.<\/p>\n<p><i>Swan et al. (Dec 14, 2020). Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021. Pre-print downloaded Dec 15 from <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.12.13.20248120v1\">https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.12.13.20248120v1<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A model based on King County data shows that if the vaccine efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are primarily driven by complete protection against infection, then prevention of a fourth epidemic wave in Spring 2021 and a reduction of subsequent cases and deaths by 60% is likely to occur, assuming&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/12\/15\/vaccines-that-prevent-sars-cov-2-transmission-may-prevent-or-dampen-a-spring-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-in-2021\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[25,47,135,75,76],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-2759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","tag-candidate","tag-modeling-prediction","tag-public-health-policy","tag-report","tag-summarize","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2759"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2759\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2760,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2759\/revisions\/2760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2759"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=2759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}