{"id":3629,"date":"2020-01-28T14:13:49","date_gmt":"2020-01-28T22:13:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=3629"},"modified":"2021-02-03T14:46:35","modified_gmt":"2021-02-03T22:46:35","slug":"covid-19-literature-situation-report-january-28-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/28\/covid-19-literature-situation-report-january-28-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Literature Situation Report January 28, 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The scientific literature on COVID-19 is rapidly evolving and these articles were selected for review based on their relevance to Washington State decision making around COVID-19 response efforts. Included in these Lit Reps are some manuscripts that have been made available online as pre-prints but have not yet undergone peer review. Please be aware of this when reviewing articles included in the Lit Reps.<\/p>\n<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>There is increasing evidence for person-to-person transmission both in and outside of China.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>While an origin for the virus has not been officially identified, current evidence points to bats with a reservoir in snakes.\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>As more modelling and predictive studies are published, caution must be used when interpreting as the assumptions used to construct these models can be flawed. <\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"uw-accordion-shortcode\">\n<h3>Article Summaries<\/h3>\n<div class=\"js-accordion\" data-accordion-prefix-classes=\"uw-accordion-shortcode\">\n<div class=\"js-accordion__panel\" >\n<h2 class=\"js-accordion__header\">Transmission<\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-posts su-posts-default-loop\">\n<div id=\"su-post-3632\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019  novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A hospital-based case study in Shenzhen, Guangdong province among six family members who travelled to Wuhan provides further evidence of person-to-person transmission.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fuk-Woo Chan et al. (Jan 24 2020). A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. The Lancet. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30154-9\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30154-9<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3630\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Importation and Human-to-Human Transmission of a Novel Coronavirus in Vietnam<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A new case of illness was identified in a 27 year-old male from Vietnam who had <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">not<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> travelled to China. He had, however, spent three days with his parents in a shared hotel room after their return from travel in Wuhan, China. The father was diagnosed with 2019 n-CoV as well.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Incubation period was estimated as <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&lt;<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">3 days for this case with strong evidence of person-to-person transmission.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Importation and Human-to-Human Transmission of a Novel Coronavirus in Vietnam (Jan 28, 2020). NEJM Correspondence. DOI: 10.1056\/NEJMc2001272<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-accordion__panel\" >\n<h2 class=\"js-accordion__header\">Modeling and Prediction<\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-posts su-posts-default-loop\">\n<div id=\"su-post-3636\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Pneumonia of Unknown Etiology in Wuhan, China: Potential for International Spread Via Commercial Air Travel<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Authors used International Air Transport Association data to quantify traveler volume originating from Wuhan in 2018 from Jan-march, accounting for roughly 90% of all commercial travel. They present these data alongside Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index scores for high-volume-receiving countries. Authors identified no U.S. airports suggesting volume of travel from Wuhan to the U.S. is less than to many other regions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bogoch et al. (Jan 2020). Pneumonia of Unknown Etiology in Wuhan, China: Potential for International Spread Via Commercial Air Travel. J Travel Medicine. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jtm\/taaa008<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3634\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Authors built a transmission model for the outbreak. Note that the model is limited by the assumptions made in constructing it. Key predicted measures are:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of 3.6 &#8211; 4.0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Only 5.1% (95% CI 4.8-5.5) of Wuhan infections are identified, meaning around 95% are going fully undetected.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By February 4, 2020 the model predicts:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over 190 thousand cases in Wuhan alone.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Countries of greatest risk for imported infections will be Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even with near perfect travel restrictions to and from Wuhan, the outbreak outside of Wuhan would be reduced by only 24.9%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Read JM et al. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.23.20018549\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.23.20018549<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-accordion__panel\" >\n<h2 class=\"js-accordion__header\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Origins, Reservoir, and Virus Background<\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-posts su-posts-default-loop\">\n<div id=\"su-post-3648\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Emerging coronaviruses: genome structure, replication, and pathogenesis<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">China-based researchers provide background on general coronavirus genome structure, replication, pathogenesis, treatment, and prevention.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chen, Liu, and Guo. (Jan 2020). J Med Virology. Emerging coronaviruses: genome structure, replication, and pathogenesis. doi: 10.1002\/jmv.25681<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3646\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Discovery of a novel coronavirus associated with the recent pneumonia outbreak in humans and its potential bat origin<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A Chinese research team reports that a previously identified coronavirus of bat origin shares 96% of its genome with 2019 n-CoV. These two viruses differ substantially from other known coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV and MERS CoV, suggesting it is likely that 2019 n-CoV may also originate in bats.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zhou et al. (Jan 23 2020). PRE-PRINT. Discovery of a novel coronavirus associated with the recent pneumonia outbreak in humans and its potential bat origin. doi: <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.22.914952\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.22.914952<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cited by NY Times: <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/01\/28\/opinion\/coronavirus-china.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/01\/28\/opinion\/coronavirus-china.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3644\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In of 41 cases of 2019 n-CoV hospitalized by Jan 1, 2020 in Wuhan, clinical symptoms and diagnostic findings are described.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Huang et al. (Jan 24, 2020).<\/span><\/i> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Lancet. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30183-5\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30183-5<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3642\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein of the newly identified coronavirus 2019-nCoV may boost cross-species transmission from snake to human<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chinese researchers conducted a sequence analysis and found that 2019-nCoV appears to be a recombinant virus between the bat coronavirus and a coronavirus of unknown origin, with the most likely wildlife reservoir being snakes. Study findings also suggest a \u201chomologous recombination within the viral receptor-binding spike glycoprotein, which may determine cross-species transmission from snake to humans.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ji et al. (Jan 2020).\u00a0 Homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein of the newly identified coronavirus 2019-nCoV may boost cross-species transmission from snake to human. Med Virology. doi: 10.1002\/fut.22099<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3640\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using various analytic techniques, researchers found that 2019 n-CoV falls into the betacoronavirus genus, along withSARS-CoV, vat SARS-like CoV, and other coronaviruses. Virus isolation, cytopathic effects, and morphology are described.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zhu et al. (Jan 24, 2020). A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019.NEJM. DOI: 10.1056\/NEJMoa2001017<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3638\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">A Novel Coronavirus Emerging in China \u2014 Key Questions for Impact Assessment<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Researchers continue to note a gap in knowledge around disease transmission patterns, noting that while previous CoV outbreaks have often centered around nosocomial infections, this may not be the case for 2019 n-CoV. Apparent lower pathogenicity compared to SARS is called out as a potential threat for widespread transmission globally.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Munster et al. (Jan 24, 2020). A Novel Coronavirus Emerging in China \u2014 Key Questions for Impact Assessment. NEJM. DOI: 10.1056\/NEJMp2000929<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is increasing evidence for person-to-person transmission both in and outside of China.<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/28\/a-novel-coronavirus-emerging-in-china-key-questions-for-impact-assessment\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-3629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19-literature-situation-report"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3629"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3629\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3651,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3629\/revisions\/3651"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3629"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=3629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}