{"id":3634,"date":"2020-01-28T14:27:25","date_gmt":"2020-01-28T22:27:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=3634"},"modified":"2021-02-03T14:28:30","modified_gmt":"2021-02-03T22:28:30","slug":"novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-early-estimation-of-epidemiological-parameters-and-epidemic-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/28\/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-early-estimation-of-epidemiological-parameters-and-epidemic-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Authors built a transmission model for the outbreak. Note that the model is limited by the assumptions made in constructing it. Key predicted measures are:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of 3.6 &#8211; 4.0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Only 5.1% (95% CI 4.8-5.5) of Wuhan infections are identified, meaning around 95% are going fully undetected.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By February 4, 2020 the model predicts:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over 190 thousand cases in Wuhan alone.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Countries of greatest risk for imported infections will be Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even with near perfect travel restrictions to and from Wuhan, the outbreak outside of Wuhan would be reduced by only 24.9%.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Read JM et al. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.23.20018549\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.23.20018549<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Authors built a transmission model for the outbreak. Note that the model is limited by the assumptions made in constructing it. Key predicted measures are: R0 of 3.6 &#8211; 4.0\u00a0 Only 5.1% (95% CI 4.8-5.5) of Wuhan infections are identified, meaning around 95% are going fully undetected.\u00a0 By February 4, 2020 the model predicts: Over&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/28\/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-early-estimation-of-epidemiological-parameters-and-epidemic-predictions\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-3634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3634"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3634\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3635,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3634\/revisions\/3635"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3634"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=3634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}