{"id":3807,"date":"2021-02-09T18:39:56","date_gmt":"2021-02-10T02:39:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=3807"},"modified":"2021-02-09T18:39:56","modified_gmt":"2021-02-10T02:39:56","slug":"modelling-the-impact-of-reopening-schools-in-early-2021-in-the-presence-of-the-new-sars-cov-2-variant-and-with-roll-out-of-vaccination-against-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2021\/02\/09\/modelling-the-impact-of-reopening-schools-in-early-2021-in-the-presence-of-the-new-sars-cov-2-variant-and-with-roll-out-of-vaccination-against-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelling the Impact of Reopening Schools in Early 2021 in the Presence of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variant and with Roll-out of Vaccination against COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed]<\/i> An existing transmission model calibrated to the UK (Covasim) calculated that a full national lockdown until April 2021, including school closures, could lower the effective reproduction number R below 1 by March 2021 when combined with a vaccination campaign capable of 200,000 daily doses targeted to elderly people. The model incorporated the presence of the B.1.1.7 variant and assumed a 95% vaccine efficacy. Partial lockdown scenarios with limited school reopening, such as only opening for exam critical years or using a two-weekly rotating system between primary and secondary schools would lead to more total number infections but would not increase R above 1. However, full reopening after April 2021 would increase R above 1 in all modelled scenarios.<\/p>\n<p><i>Panovska-Griffiths et al. (Feb 9, 2021). Modelling the Impact of Reopening Schools in Early 2021 in the Presence of the New SARS-CoV-2 Variant and with Roll-out of Vaccination against COVID-19. Pre-print downloaded Feb 9 from <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2021.02.07.21251287\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2021.02.07.21251287<\/a><i><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An existing transmission model calibrated to the UK (Covasim) calculated that a full national lockdown until April 2021, including school closures, could lower the effective reproduction number R below 1 by March 2021 when combined with a vaccination campaign capable of 200,000 daily doses targeted to elderly people. The model incorporated the&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2021\/02\/09\/modelling-the-impact-of-reopening-schools-in-early-2021-in-the-presence-of-the-new-sars-cov-2-variant-and-with-roll-out-of-vaccination-against-covid-19\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[168],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-3807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","tag-schools-modeling","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3807"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3807\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3808,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3807\/revisions\/3808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3807"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=3807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}