{"id":3927,"date":"2020-01-29T11:59:17","date_gmt":"2020-01-29T19:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=3927"},"modified":"2021-02-16T12:03:34","modified_gmt":"2021-02-16T20:03:34","slug":"this-modeling-study-indicates-that-2019-ncov-has-a-higher-2-effective-reproduction-number-than-sars-with-a-comparable-fatality-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/29\/this-modeling-study-indicates-that-2019-ncov-has-a-higher-2-effective-reproduction-number-than-sars-with-a-comparable-fatality-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"This modeling study indicates that 2019-nCoV has a higher 2 effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate."},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Using daily case reports from China CDC, researchers estimate the effective reproductive number (R, not R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">) for 2019-nCoV. R is the number of secondary cases expected for each infectious case <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">once an epidemic is already underway.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">R is estimated as 4.08, compared to SARS-CoV in Beijing (2.76) and Guangzhou (3.01).\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">They also predict the future outbreak profile, and in doing so evidence suggests that human-to-human transmission likely began before 12\/16\/2020, contradicting current estimates.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Case fatality is estimated to reach 6.5%, compared to SARS-CoV in Beijing (7.66%) and Guangzhou (3.61%).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Cao et al. (Jan 29, 2020). This modeling study indicates that 2019-nCoV has a higher<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2 effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate. Pre-Print. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.27.20018952\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.01.27.20018952<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using daily case reports from China CDC, researchers estimate the effective reproductive number (R, not R0) for 2019-nCoV. R is the number of secondary cases expected for each infectious case once an epidemic is already underway.\u00a0 R is estimated as 4.08, compared to SARS-CoV in Beijing (2.76) and Guangzhou (3.01).\u00a0 They also predict the future&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/29\/this-modeling-study-indicates-that-2019-ncov-has-a-higher-2-effective-reproduction-number-than-sars-with-a-comparable-fatality-rate\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-3927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3927"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3927\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3928,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3927\/revisions\/3928"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3927"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=3927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}