{"id":3966,"date":"2020-01-31T13:00:10","date_gmt":"2020-01-31T21:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=3966"},"modified":"2021-02-22T11:35:28","modified_gmt":"2021-02-22T19:35:28","slug":"covid-19-literature-situation-report-january-31-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/31\/covid-19-literature-situation-report-january-31-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Literature Situation Report January 31, 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The scientific literature on COVID-19 is rapidly evolving and these articles were selected for review based on their relevance to Washington State decision making around COVID-19 response efforts. Included in these Lit Reps are some manuscripts that have been made available online as pre-prints but have not yet undergone peer review. Please be aware of this when reviewing articles included in the Lit Reps.<\/p>\n<h2>Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><b>A second case of 2019-nCoV was identified in Germany resulting from apparent asymptomatic transmission from an infected Chinese traveler.\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Several studies suggest that movement and travel restrictions in China remain important for curbing the spread of the outbreak and that there is a risk of self-sustained outbreaks in major cities where travel from Wuhan was high in the days leading up to the region\u2019s movement restrictions.<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Phylogenetic studies of the origin of the virus continue to be published, with one recent report suggesting that the virus may have been circulating among humans as many as 200 days before the outbreak was detected in December.\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"uw-accordion-shortcode\">\n<h3>Article Summaries<\/h3>\n<div class=\"js-accordion\" data-accordion-prefix-classes=\"uw-accordion-shortcode\">\n<div class=\"js-accordion__panel\" >\n<h2 class=\"js-accordion__header\">Transmission<\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-posts su-posts-default-loop\">\n<div id=\"su-post-3975\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Epidemiologic characteristics of confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in China up to January 23<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">were used to produce time-dependent reproductive numbers. Findings suggest that the rate at which secondary cases are appearing may have been decreasing over the last few weeks.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Liu et al. (Jan 26, 2020). Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Pre-Print. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.25.919787v1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.25.919787v1<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3973\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Researchers constructed a model to assess the effectiveness of three control measures (isolation of ill persons, restricted human mobility, and improving treatment) at reducing the spread of the outbreak. Findings suggest that public health interventions that restrict movement remain necessary, particularly if asymptomatic transmission is widespread (which has yet to be determined).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Shao and Shan (Jan 28, 2020). Beware of asymptomatic transmission: Study on 2019-nCoV prevention and control measures based on extended SEIR model. Pre Print. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.28.923169v1.full.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.28.923169v1.full.pdf<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3970\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">The Novel Coronavirus Originating in Wuhan, China Challenges for Global Health Governance<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In this commentary, authors discuss the use of a cordon sanitaire (cordoned off area where movement is restricted) in Wuhan and suggestions for slowing the spread of the outbreak, including the issues associated with involuntary social isolation.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Phelan et al. (Jan 30, 2020). The Novel Coronavirus Originating in Wuhan, China <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Challenges for Global Health Governance. JAMA Viewpoint.<\/span><\/i> <a href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2760500\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2760500<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3968\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">On 1\/28 potential asymptomatic transmission of 2019-nCoV was identified in Germany. A new report indicates a second person was infected by the same asymptomatic traveler from China.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The virus seems to have been transmitted during the index patient\u2019s incubation period. Once symptoms did develop, the index patient experiences brief and nonspecific symptoms.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">High sputum viral load in the first asymptomatically-infected patient raises concerns about potential prolonged viral shedding after recovery.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Rothe et al. (Jan 30, 2020). Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany. NEJM. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_coronavirus\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_coronavirus<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-accordion__panel\" >\n<h2 class=\"js-accordion__header\">Modeling and Prediction<\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-posts su-posts-default-loop\">\n<div id=\"su-post-3979\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Breaking down of healthcare system: Mathematical modelling for controlling the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Researchers estimated burden on isolation and intensive care units in Wuhan accounting for the effect of successful public health intervention and diagnosis rates. With a 50% diagnosis rate and in the absence of any public health intervention efforts, the number of infected cases is anticipated to exceed other reported estimates (as of Jan 31), producing tremendous burden on the health care system. If public health interventions are 70% effective, the burden would be reduced significantly.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Findings emphasize the importance of public health efforts to reduce transmission.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ming et al. (Jan 28, 2020). Breaking down of healthcare system: Mathematical modelling for controlling the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China. Pre-Print. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.27.922443v2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.27.922443v2<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"su-post-3977\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and  international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Using available data, researchers estimated the number of cases that have already been exported from Wuhan to other Chinese cities and forecasted the spread within and outside of mainland China. They estimate an R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">0 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">of 2.69 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) and, as of Jan 25, 75,815 infections (95% CI: 37,304-130,330) in Wuhan alone.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Findings suggest a strong likelihood of self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally, especially where asymptomatic travel persists in the absence of strong public health intervention and movement restrictions. They call for strong personal and public health prevention measures in all cities with regular travel structures to and from Wuhan and other cities with known sustained transmission.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Wu et al. (Jan 31, 2020). Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9<\/span><\/a> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Summary press conference slides: <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.med.hku.hk\/f\/news\/3549\/7418\/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak_AN-UPDATE_20200127.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.med.hku.hk\/f\/news\/3549\/7418\/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak_AN-UPDATE_20200127.pdf<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-accordion__panel\" >\n<h2 class=\"js-accordion__header\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Clinical Information<\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-posts su-posts-default-loop\">\n<div id=\"su-post-3981\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Potential inhibitors for 20192019-nCoV coronavirus M protease from clinically approved medicines<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An assessment of commercially available medications found up to 10 that may be useful in treating 2019-nCoV.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Liu and Wang (Jan 29, 2020). Potential inhibitors for 20192019-nCoV coronavirus M protease from clinically approved medicines. Pre Print. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.29.924100v1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.29.924100v1<\/span><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-accordion__panel\" >\n<h2 class=\"js-accordion__header\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Origins, Reservoir, and Virus Background<\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"su-posts su-posts-default-loop\">\n<div id=\"su-post-3983\" class=\"su-post\">\n<h5 class=\"su-post-title\">Evolution and variation of 2019-novel coronavirus<\/h5>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<!-- \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div class=\"su-post-meta\">\n\t\t\t\t\t: \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n --><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-post-excerpt\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A new phylogenetic study suggests that there may have been two different viral strains of 2019-nCoV circulating as early as a few months prior to the initial detection of the outbreak. Evidence also indicates that the Huanan seafood market at the center of early surveillance efforts may in fact not have been the primary starting point of the outbreak.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Xiong et al. (Jan 30, 2020). Evolution and variation of 2019-novel coronavirus. Pre Print. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.30.926477v1.full.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.30.926477v1.full.pdf<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <a href=\"\" class=\"su-post-comments-link\"><\/a> --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3><strong>Additional Resources<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Our terrific Washington team was published in the New England Journal of Medicine today, discussing the first U.S. case of 2019-nCoV. You can read the full text here: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1056\/NEJMoa2001191\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1056\/NEJMoa2001191<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Boston Children\u2019s Hospital is tracking all publicly reported cases of 2019-nCoV in an interactive map: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthmap.org\/ncov2019\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.healthmap.org\/ncov2019\/<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/detail\/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Statement on the Second Meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee Regarding the Outbreak of Novel Coronavirus (<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2019<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">&#8211;<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">nCoV<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">)\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A second case of 2019-nCoV was identified in Germany resulting from apparent asymptomatic transmission from an infected Chinese traveler.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/31\/evolution-and-variation-of-2019-novel-coronavirus\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":671,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-3966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid-19-literature-situation-report"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3966"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3966\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4488,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3966\/revisions\/4488"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3966"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=3966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}