{"id":3977,"date":"2020-01-31T13:16:20","date_gmt":"2020-01-31T21:16:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=3977"},"modified":"2021-02-16T13:17:42","modified_gmt":"2021-02-16T21:17:42","slug":"nowcasting-and-forecasting-the-potential-domestic-and-international-spread-of-the-2019-ncov-outbreak-originating-in-wuhan-china-a-modelling-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/31\/nowcasting-and-forecasting-the-potential-domestic-and-international-spread-of-the-2019-ncov-outbreak-originating-in-wuhan-china-a-modelling-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and  international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Using available data, researchers estimated the number of cases that have already been exported from Wuhan to other Chinese cities and forecasted the spread within and outside of mainland China. They estimate an R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">0 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">of 2.69 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) and, as of Jan 25, 75,815 infections (95% CI: 37,304-130,330) in Wuhan alone.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Findings suggest a strong likelihood of self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally, especially where asymptomatic travel persists in the absence of strong public health intervention and movement restrictions. They call for strong personal and public health prevention measures in all cities with regular travel structures to and from Wuhan and other cities with known sustained transmission.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Wu et al. (Jan 31, 2020). Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/action\/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9<\/span><\/a> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Summary press conference slides: <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.med.hku.hk\/f\/news\/3549\/7418\/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak_AN-UPDATE_20200127.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.med.hku.hk\/f\/news\/3549\/7418\/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak_AN-UPDATE_20200127.pdf<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using available data, researchers estimated the number of cases that have already been exported from Wuhan to other Chinese cities and forecasted the spread within and outside of mainland China. They estimate an R0 of 2.69 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) and, as of Jan 25, 75,815 infections (95% CI: 37,304-130,330) in Wuhan alone.\u00a0 Findings suggest a&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/01\/31\/nowcasting-and-forecasting-the-potential-domestic-and-international-spread-of-the-2019-ncov-outbreak-originating-in-wuhan-china-a-modelling-study\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-3977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3977"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3977\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3978,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3977\/revisions\/3978"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3977"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=3977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}