{"id":4003,"date":"2020-02-04T13:43:33","date_gmt":"2020-02-04T21:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=4003"},"modified":"2021-02-19T14:52:21","modified_gmt":"2021-02-19T22:52:21","slug":"the-incubation-period-of-2019-ncov-from-publicly-reported-confirmed-cases-estimation-and-application","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/04\/the-incubation-period-of-2019-ncov-from-publicly-reported-confirmed-cases-estimation-and-application\/","title":{"rendered":"The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Incubation periods were assessed by Lauer, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">et al.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> based on 101 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure windows from outside Hubei province (other parts of China plus globally). Case were 62% male with a mean age of 52 years.\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Mean incubation period: 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.4, 6.0 days)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">95% of persons developed symptoms within 10.5 days (95% CI, 7.3, 15.3 days)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">64\/10,000 cases may develop symptoms after 14 days (&lt;1%)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Median incubation time assessing fever only: 5.7 days, with 97.5% of persons experiencing fever within 11.4 days (95% CI: 6.1, 17.8 days)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A subset of patients with symptom onset outside a facility had a mean time of 2.7 days from symptoms to hospitalization. [<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Note:<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Consistent with Sun, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">et al.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, below]<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Incubation periods appear on average almost a day shorter in China than elsewhere, possibly due to a bias that persons able to travel out of China tended to have longer incubation periods.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">These estimates are generally consistent with earlier estimates and those for SARS and MERS, though longer than the roughly 3-day period seen for other non-SARS human coronaviruses.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Lauer SA, et al. (Feb 4, 2020). The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application. Pre-Print downloaded on 4 Feb, 2020 from, <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.02.02.20020016v1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.02.02.20020016v1<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Incubation periods were assessed by Lauer, et al. based on 101 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure windows from outside Hubei province (other parts of China plus globally). Case were 62% male with a mean age of 52 years.\u00a0 Mean incubation period: 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.4, 6.0 days) 95% of persons developed symptoms within 10.5&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/04\/the-incubation-period-of-2019-ncov-from-publicly-reported-confirmed-cases-estimation-and-application\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[21],"class_list":["post-4003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-transmission"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4004,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4003\/revisions\/4004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4003"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=4003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}