{"id":4021,"date":"2020-02-04T13:57:28","date_gmt":"2020-02-04T21:57:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=4021"},"modified":"2021-02-19T14:30:50","modified_gmt":"2021-02-19T22:30:50","slug":"early-epidemiological-analysis-of-the-2019-ncov-outbreak-based-on-a-crowdsourced-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/04\/early-epidemiological-analysis-of-the-2019-ncov-outbreak-based-on-a-crowdsourced-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Early epidemiological analysis of the 2019-nCoV outbreak based on a crowdsourced data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b><i>Context<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Based on current reports from China,<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the case fatality (%) among confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic is 2.1% (15% among \u201csevere\u201d cases; 1% among all confirmed and suspected cases).<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sun, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">et al.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> used crowdsourced data from a Chinese healthcare professional community network site and other publicly available data to provide information on demographics, hospitalization, and reporting lag during the period of Dec 2019 &#8211; Jan 2020. Case definitions are not specified.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They identified 288 apparently-hospitalized cases (200 in 5 provinces of mainland China; 88 international), including 39 fatalities (13.5%).<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cases were 63% male<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median age: 44 years of age, with a majority of case over 30 years. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seven (2.4%) cases were under 15 years (est. adjusted relative risk for age &lt;15 yrs was 0.3).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Median age among those who died: 70 years. Two deaths (5%) occurred in persons &lt;50 yrs.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Average lag in symptom onset to seeking care in China was 3 days, declining from 5 to 2 days before compared to after 18 January. In Hubei, the ~6 day average was probably affected by delays in the early Wuhan cases. Outside Hubei, the average was about 2 days; outside China, the average was same-day.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Average lag in hospitalization to report in China was 3 days, declining from 9 to 2 days before compared to after 18 January. In Hubei, the ~9 day average was probably affected by delays in the early Wuhan cases. Outside Hubei and internationally, the average was about 2 days.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Average lag in symptom onset to reporting was 5 days, ranging from 0-43 days.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rapid growth of cases in China outside Hubei is reported as consistent with sustained transmission in those other areas.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crowdsourced data appeared to capture more cases in China before the 18 Jan, when compared to national reporting; and slowed compared to national reporting after that.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sun K, et al. (Feb 4, 2020). Early epidemiological analysis of the 2019-nCoV outbreak based on a crowdsourced data. Pre-Print downloaded on 4 Feb, 2020 from, <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.31.20019935v1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.01.31.20019935v1<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Context: Based on current reports from China, the case fatality (%) among confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic is 2.1% (15% among \u201csevere\u201d cases; 1% among all confirmed and suspected cases). Sun, et al. used crowdsourced data from a Chinese healthcare professional community network site and other publicly available data to provide information&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/04\/early-epidemiological-analysis-of-the-2019-ncov-outbreak-based-on-a-crowdsourced-data\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[20],"class_list":["post-4021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-clinical-characteristics-and-health-care-setting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4021"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4021\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4418,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4021\/revisions\/4418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4021"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=4021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}