{"id":4198,"date":"2020-02-11T15:30:31","date_gmt":"2020-02-11T23:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=4198"},"modified":"2021-02-17T15:31:27","modified_gmt":"2021-02-17T23:31:27","slug":"preparation-for-possible-sustained-transmission-of-2019-novel-coronavirus-lessons-from-previous-epidemics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/11\/preparation-for-possible-sustained-transmission-of-2019-novel-coronavirus-lessons-from-previous-epidemics\/","title":{"rendered":"Preparation for Possible Sustained Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus: Lessons From Previous Epidemics"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Swerdlow and Finelli review information from modeling studies of earlier epidemics and pandemics to assess global preparedness for sustained transmission of an emerging viral disease with high transmissibility and severity. Examples cited were H1N1, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Models suggest that:\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Assuming no intervention in a US population, a model mixing a range of influenza transmission and severity parameters indicated that clinical attack rates of 20-30% (per H1N1pdm09) could lead to 669,000-4,300,000 hospitalizations and 54,000-538,000 deaths, depending on severity.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Without a vaccine, school closures would be unlikely to affect spread.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">35,000-60,000 ventilators would be needed, as would ~7.3 billion surgical masks\/respirators<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Vaccine development <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">before<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> introduction of the new pathogen would be required to avoid a significant number of hospitalizations and deaths.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It is too early in the 2019-nCoV epidemic to determine the combination of transmissibility and severity posed by this virus. However, influenza mitigation plans would be useful to enact should the US see sustained 2019-nCoV transmission.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Swerdlow DL and Finelli L (Feb 11, 2020) Preparation for Possible Sustained Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus: Lessons From Previous Epidemics. JAMA. <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2761285\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2761285<\/span><\/a> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Swerdlow and Finelli review information from modeling studies of earlier epidemics and pandemics to assess global preparedness for sustained transmission of an emerging viral disease with high transmissibility and severity. Examples cited were H1N1, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV.\u00a0 Models suggest that:\u00a0 Assuming no intervention in a US population, a model mixing a range of influenza transmission&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/11\/preparation-for-possible-sustained-transmission-of-2019-novel-coronavirus-lessons-from-previous-epidemics\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-4198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4198"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4198\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4199,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4198\/revisions\/4199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4198"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=4198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}