{"id":4223,"date":"2020-02-12T15:49:46","date_gmt":"2020-02-12T23:49:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=4223"},"modified":"2021-02-17T15:50:54","modified_gmt":"2021-02-17T23:50:54","slug":"beyond-r0-the-importance-of-contact-tracing-when-predicting-epidemics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/12\/beyond-r0-the-importance-of-contact-tracing-when-predicting-epidemics\/","title":{"rendered":"Beyond R0: the importance of contact tracing when predicting epidemics"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hebert-Dufrense, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">et al.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> apply network theory to improve basic estimates of R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, using added information from the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">numeric heterogeneity of secondary infections <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2013 that is, the fact that some individuals create more secondary infections then others.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A range of predictions for the final size of the Wuhan 2019-nCoV epidemic is provided, using R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> estimates from early cases and SARS data for the underlying distribution of secondary cases. The resulting range, as a fraction of the total susceptible population, is 5%-40%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With a <\/span><b>high heterogeneity (<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">e.g., transmission mostly maintained by \u201csuper-spreading\u201d events), the epidemic is less likely to spread extensively and be easier to manage with contact tracing, screening and infection control\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With <\/span><b>low heterogeneity<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, containment strategies will likely fail, and pandemic of 2019-nCoV is likely.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Overall, this network modeling approach highlights the need for contact tracing during emerging infectious disease outbreaks; and the need to look beyond R<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> when predicting epidemic size.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Hebert-Dufrense L, et al. (Feb 11, 2020) Beyond R0: the importance of contact tracing when predicting epidemics. Pre-print. Accessed Feb 12 from<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.02.10.20021725v1<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hebert-Dufrense, et al. apply network theory to improve basic estimates of R0, using added information from the numeric heterogeneity of secondary infections \u2013 that is, the fact that some individuals create more secondary infections then others.\u00a0 A range of predictions for the final size of the Wuhan 2019-nCoV epidemic is provided, using R0 estimates from&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/12\/beyond-r0-the-importance-of-contact-tracing-when-predicting-epidemics\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-4223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4223"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4223\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4224,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4223\/revisions\/4224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4223"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=4223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}