{"id":4225,"date":"2020-02-12T15:51:12","date_gmt":"2020-02-12T23:51:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=4225"},"modified":"2021-02-17T15:52:15","modified_gmt":"2021-02-17T23:52:15","slug":"assessing-the-plausibility-of-subcritical-transmission-of-2019-ncov-in-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/12\/assessing-the-plausibility-of-subcritical-transmission-of-2019-ncov-in-the-united-states\/","title":{"rendered":"Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The upper bound for basic reproduction number, R, in the current US context is estimated based on the number of imported primary cases and secondary cases, and using a maximum likelihood technique. R is found to be less than 1 (subcritical) at this time. Depending on the value of a dispersion parameter reflecting heterogeneity of spread [see above], 2-9 secondary cases from 10 imported cases would be required for R to exceed 1.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Blumberg S, et al (Feb 11, 2020) Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States. Pre-print. Accessed Feb 12 from<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.02.08.20021311v1<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The upper bound for basic reproduction number, R, in the current US context is estimated based on the number of imported primary cases and secondary cases, and using a maximum likelihood technique. R is found to be less than 1 (subcritical) at this time. Depending on the value of a dispersion parameter reflecting heterogeneity of&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/02\/12\/assessing-the-plausibility-of-subcritical-transmission-of-2019-ncov-in-the-united-states\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-4225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4225"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4225\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4226,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4225\/revisions\/4226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4225"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=4225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}