{"id":6108,"date":"2020-04-16T14:07:59","date_gmt":"2020-04-16T21:07:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=6108"},"modified":"2021-03-09T14:09:02","modified_gmt":"2021-03-09T22:09:02","slug":"estimating-the-final-epidemic-size-for-covid-19-outbreak-using-improved-epidemiological-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/04\/16\/estimating-the-final-epidemic-size-for-covid-19-outbreak-using-improved-epidemiological-models\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimating the final epidemic size for COVID-19 outbreak using improved epidemiological models"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ranjan presents results from three epidemiological models (logistic, SIR and generalized SIER) that were used to make predictions for the final epidemic size of COVID-19 for the most affected countries, indicating that the final epidemic size in the US, Italy, Spain, and Germany could be 1.1, 0.22, 0.24 and 0.19 million respectively.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The model also predicts that curves for most of the geographical regions will flatten by the middle of May 2020.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ranjan (Apr 16, 2020). Estimating the final epidemic size for COVID-19 outbreak using improved epidemiological models. Pre-print downloaded Apr 16 from<\/span><\/i> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.04.12.20061002\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.04.12.20061002<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ranjan presents results from three epidemiological models (logistic, SIR and generalized SIER) that were used to make predictions for the final epidemic size of COVID-19 for the most affected countries, indicating that the final epidemic size in the US, Italy, Spain, and Germany could be 1.1, 0.22, 0.24 and 0.19 million respectively. The model also&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/04\/16\/estimating-the-final-epidemic-size-for-covid-19-outbreak-using-improved-epidemiological-models\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-6108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6108"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6109,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6108\/revisions\/6109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6108"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=6108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}