{"id":6645,"date":"2020-05-05T15:16:15","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T22:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=6645"},"modified":"2021-03-16T15:17:05","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T22:17:05","slug":"covid-19-pandemic-response-simulation-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-ending-lockdowns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/05\/covid-19-pandemic-response-simulation-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-ending-lockdowns\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">An agent-based simulation (FRED &#8211;<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) was used to model the incidence of COVID-19 in King County, WA in a variety of scenarios including case isolation at home, school closure<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0and social distancing. While non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were effective in flattening the curve, any relaxation of social distancing strategies yielded a second wave.\u00a0 Even if daily confirmed cases dropped to one digit, daily incidence can peak again to 874 cases\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">in the absence of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">import<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ed<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0cases.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Lee. (May 4, 2020). COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Preprint downloaded May 5 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Medrxiv<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.04.28.20080838\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.04.28.20080838<\/span><\/i><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An agent-based simulation (FRED &#8211;\u00a0Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) was used to model the incidence of COVID-19 in King County, WA in a variety of scenarios including case isolation at home, school closure,\u00a0and social distancing. While non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were effective in flattening the curve, any relaxation of social distancing strategies yielded a second wave.\u00a0&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/05\/covid-19-pandemic-response-simulation-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-ending-lockdowns\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-6645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6645"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6645\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6646,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6645\/revisions\/6646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6645"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=6645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}