{"id":6647,"date":"2020-05-05T15:17:12","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T22:17:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=6647"},"modified":"2021-03-16T15:17:58","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T22:17:58","slug":"mathematical-assessment-of-the-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-curtailing-the-2019-novel-coronavirus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/05\/mathematical-assessment-of-the-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-curtailing-the-2019-novel-coronavirus\/","title":{"rendered":"Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Curtailing the 2019 Novel Coronavirus"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Ngonghala<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0et al. predict that use of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">face<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">masks<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0with efficacy \u2265 70% (e.g. surgical masks) could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 80% of the U.S. residents use such masks in public consistently. The use of lower<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">&#8211;<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">efficacy masks (e.g. cloth\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ma<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">sks<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0with &lt;30% efficacy) could still lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 cases<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0but would not lead to elimination. The best model scenarios reduced cases by 64% only if the strict social distancing measures were maintained until the end of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">May or June 2020. This study shows that early termination of the strict social distancing measures could trigger a second wave of COVID-19 cases.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Ngonghala<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0et al. (<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">May 1<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">, 2020). Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Curtailing the 2019 Novel Coronavirus. Mathematical Biosciences.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.mbs.2020.108364\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.mbs.2020.108364<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ngonghala\u00a0et al. predict that use of\u00a0face\u00a0masks\u00a0with efficacy \u2265 70% (e.g. surgical masks) could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 80% of the U.S. residents use such masks in public consistently. The use of lower&#8211;efficacy masks (e.g. cloth\u00a0masks\u00a0with &lt;30% efficacy) could still lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 cases,\u00a0but would not lead&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/05\/mathematical-assessment-of-the-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-curtailing-the-2019-novel-coronavirus\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-6647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6647"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6648,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6647\/revisions\/6648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6647"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=6647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}