{"id":6820,"date":"2020-05-13T17:06:33","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T00:06:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=6820"},"modified":"2021-03-17T17:07:21","modified_gmt":"2021-03-18T00:07:21","slug":"significant-relaxation-of-sars-cov-2-targeted-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-will-result-in-profound-mortality-a-new-york-state-modelling-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/13\/significant-relaxation-of-sars-cov-2-targeted-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-will-result-in-profound-mortality-a-new-york-state-modelling-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality A New York State Modelling Study"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"2019\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Hoffman modeled the effect of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">unidentified\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State. Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">unidentified\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">infections with a peak basic reproductive number of 5.7.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"2019\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">R<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">eduction of social distancing by &gt;50%\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">below current levels<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">w<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ould<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">result in\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">increased<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0mortality<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained immunity.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Hoffman. (May 12,\u00a02020).\u00a0Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality A New York State Modelling Study. Pre-print\u00a0downloaded May 13 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.08.20095505\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.08.20095505<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hoffman modeled the effect of\u00a0unidentified\u00a0infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State. Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by\u00a0unidentified\u00a0infections with a peak basic reproductive number of 5.7.\u00a0\u00a0 Reduction of social distancing by &gt;50%\u00a0below current levels\u00a0would\u00a0result in\u00a0increased\u00a0mortality. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/13\/significant-relaxation-of-sars-cov-2-targeted-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-will-result-in-profound-mortality-a-new-york-state-modelling-study\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-6820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6820"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6821,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6820\/revisions\/6821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6820"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=6820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}