{"id":6822,"date":"2020-05-13T17:07:32","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T00:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=6822"},"modified":"2021-03-17T17:08:23","modified_gmt":"2021-03-18T00:08:23","slug":"the-real-time-effective-reproductive-number-for-covid-19-in-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/13\/the-real-time-effective-reproductive-number-for-covid-19-in-the-united-states\/","title":{"rendered":"The Real Time Effective Reproductive Number for COVID-19 in the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"41\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Keegan et al.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">compared\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">the<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0reproductive number\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">(<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Rt<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">calculated between\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">two methods, the Wallinga and Teunis (WT) method\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">(<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">forward-looking<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0and the Cori method<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0(<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">backward-looking<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to estimate the impact of all combined non-pharmaceutical interventions\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">in US.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:360,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"41\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Results show that most states have been able to reduce the Rt of SARS-CoV-2. However, few states have demonstrated\u00a0an\u00a0ability to maintain Rt below\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">a value of 1<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. The median difference in timing of Rt&lt;1 between the two methods is 6.5 days,\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">highlighting the importance of method selection for Rt estimation<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to inform\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">policy decision making<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:360,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Keegan et al. (May 13, 2020). The Real Time Effective Reproductive Number for COVID-19 in the United States. Pre-print\u00a0downloaded May 13 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.08.20095703\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.08.20095703<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Keegan et al.\u00a0compared\u00a0the\u00a0reproductive number\u00a0(Rt)\u00a0calculated between\u00a0two methods, the Wallinga and Teunis (WT) method\u00a0(forward-looking)\u00a0and the Cori method\u00a0(backward-looking)\u00a0to estimate the impact of all combined non-pharmaceutical interventions\u00a0in US.\u00a0 Results show that most states have been able to reduce the Rt of SARS-CoV-2. However, few states have demonstrated\u00a0an\u00a0ability to maintain Rt below\u00a0a value of 1. The median difference in timing&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/13\/the-real-time-effective-reproductive-number-for-covid-19-in-the-united-states\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-6822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6822"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6822\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6823,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6822\/revisions\/6823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6822"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=6822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}