{"id":7011,"date":"2020-05-20T15:55:52","date_gmt":"2020-05-20T22:55:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=7011"},"modified":"2021-03-19T15:56:33","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T22:56:33","slug":"estimation-of-covid-19-transmission-rates-in-california-and-the-u-s-with-reporting-delays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/20\/estimation-of-covid-19-transmission-rates-in-california-and-the-u-s-with-reporting-delays\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in California and the U.S. with Reporting Delays"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"2019\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Worden et al.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">used a model to determine that<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">transmission in many areas in the US may not yet be controlled despite stable or declining case counts. Based on data available on May 9, 2020, the only states to have achieved\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">a threshold at which the epidemic fades out<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0(R<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">t<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0&lt; 1) are New York, Michigan, New Jersey, and Louisiana.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0The model uses\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">the Wallinga-Teunis method and account<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0for uncertainty in delays from symptom onset to case reporting<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">estimate time varying reproduction number\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">(<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">R<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">t<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0in counties and regions in California and in\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">other\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">states over time<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Worden et al. (May 19, 2020). Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in California and the U.S. with Reporting Delays.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Pre-print\u00a0downloaded May 20 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.14.20101162\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.14.20101162<\/span><\/a><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Worden et al.\u00a0used a model to determine that\u00a0transmission in many areas in the US may not yet be controlled despite stable or declining case counts. Based on data available on May 9, 2020, the only states to have achieved\u00a0a threshold at which the epidemic fades out\u00a0(Rt\u00a0&lt; 1) are New York, Michigan, New Jersey, and Louisiana.\u00a0The&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/20\/estimation-of-covid-19-transmission-rates-in-california-and-the-u-s-with-reporting-delays\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-7011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7011"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7011\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7012,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7011\/revisions\/7012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7011"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=7011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}