{"id":7110,"date":"2020-05-26T16:52:06","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T23:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=7110"},"modified":"2021-03-19T16:59:16","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T23:59:16","slug":"a-score-based-risk-model-for-predicting-severe-covid-19-infection-as-a-key-component-of-lockdown-exit-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/26\/a-score-based-risk-model-for-predicting-severe-covid-19-infection-as-a-key-component-of-lockdown-exit-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"A Score-Based Risk Model for Predicting Severe COVID-19 Infection as a Key Component of Lockdown Exit Strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"36\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">[<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">pre-print, not peer reviewed<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">]<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Dagan et al.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">u<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ed<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0retrospective data from all COVID-19 patients diagnosed by April 1, 2020 in a large healthcare organization<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0(n=2,421)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">develop a tool\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">that\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">sums over 10 risk factors to predict risk of severe COVID-19 illness or death (basic risk, high risk, very high risk).\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The risk score had similar sensitivity to detect severe cases of COVID-19 disease compared to the CDC criteria\u00a0(\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">92%<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0versus<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a096%<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">) but resulted in\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">far fewer members of the general population<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0who would be classified as being at high risk\u00a0of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">COVID-19 disease. Such a risk score could\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">enabling\u00a0better targeting of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">risk mitigation strategies while planning a lockdown exit strategy<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Dagan et al. (May 23, 2020). A Score-Based Risk Model for Predicting Severe COVID-19 Infection as a Key Component of Lockdown Exit Strategy.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Pre-print\u00a0downloaded May 26 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.20.20108571\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.20.20108571<\/span><\/i><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[pre-print, not peer reviewed]\u00a0Dagan et al.\u00a0used\u00a0retrospective data from all COVID-19 patients diagnosed by April 1, 2020 in a large healthcare organization\u00a0(n=2,421)\u00a0to\u00a0develop a tool\u00a0that\u00a0sums over 10 risk factors to predict risk of severe COVID-19 illness or death (basic risk, high risk, very high risk).\u00a0The risk score had similar sensitivity to detect severe cases of COVID-19 disease&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/26\/a-score-based-risk-model-for-predicting-severe-covid-19-infection-as-a-key-component-of-lockdown-exit-strategy\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-7110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7110"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7111,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7110\/revisions\/7111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7110"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=7110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}