{"id":7112,"date":"2020-05-26T16:53:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T23:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=7112"},"modified":"2021-03-19T16:59:00","modified_gmt":"2021-03-19T23:59:00","slug":"epidemic-model-guided-machine-learning-for-covid-19-forecasts-in-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/26\/epidemic-model-guided-machine-learning-for-covid-19-forecasts-in-the-united-states\/","title":{"rendered":"Epidemic Model Guided Machine Learning for COVID-19 Forecasts in the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"36\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">[<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">pre-print, not peer reviewed<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">]<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Zou et al. propose the\u00a0SuEIR\u00a0model, which extends the SEIR model by accounting for untested\/unreported cases of COVID-19, and train this model using machine learning algorithms<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Forecasts from th<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">e<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0model\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">predict<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0the peak date<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0of the\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">outbreak in the\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">US<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0(June 1)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, New York\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">State (May 10)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, and California\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">(<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">July 1<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">).\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">E<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">stimated<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0basic reproduction number<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0(<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">R<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">)\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">are 2.5<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">for the US,\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">3.6<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0for New York<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, and 2.2<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0for California<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Results for all states<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">:<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.uclaml.org\/\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/covid19.uclaml.org<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. These<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0predictions have been adopted by the CDC for\u00a0COVID-19 death forecasts.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Zou et al. (May 25, 2020). Epidemic Model Guided Machine Learning for COVID-19 Forecasts in the United States.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Pre-print\u00a0downloaded May 26 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.24.20111989\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.24.20111989<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[pre-print, not peer reviewed]\u00a0Zou et al. propose the\u00a0SuEIR\u00a0model, which extends the SEIR model by accounting for untested\/unreported cases of COVID-19, and train this model using machine learning algorithms. Forecasts from the\u00a0model\u00a0predict\u00a0the peak dates\u00a0of the\u00a0outbreak in the\u00a0US\u00a0(June 1), New York\u00a0State (May 10), and California\u00a0(July 1).\u00a0Estimated\u00a0basic reproduction numbers\u00a0(R0)\u00a0are 2.5\u00a0for the US,\u00a03.6\u00a0for New York, and 2.2\u00a0for California. Results&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/26\/epidemic-model-guided-machine-learning-for-covid-19-forecasts-in-the-united-states\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-7112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7112"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7112\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7113,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7112\/revisions\/7113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7112"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=7112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}