{"id":7144,"date":"2020-05-27T17:26:52","date_gmt":"2020-05-28T00:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=7144"},"modified":"2021-03-19T17:27:37","modified_gmt":"2021-03-20T00:27:37","slug":"bayesian-network-analysis-of-covid-19-data-reveals-higher-infection-prevalence-rates-and-lower-fatality-rates-than-widely-reported","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/27\/bayesian-network-analysis-of-covid-19-data-reveals-higher-infection-prevalence-rates-and-lower-fatality-rates-than-widely-reported\/","title":{"rendered":"Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 Data Reveals Higher Infection Prevalence Rates and Lower Fatality Rates than Widely Reported"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"36\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">[<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">pre-print, not peer reviewed<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">]<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Neil et al.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">use a Bayesian technique called &#8220;virtual evidence&#8221; to test the sensitivity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) to two significant sources of uncertainty: survey quality and\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">COVID<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">-19 death counts.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This approach estimates an IFR that is\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">higher than widely reported<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0values<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. For Santa Clara<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">CA<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0and Chelsea<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">MA<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, the most likely IFR values are 0.3-0.4%.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Neil et al. (May 26, 2020). Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 Data Reveals Higher Infection Prevalence Rates and Lower Fatality Rates than Widely Reported. Pre-print\u00a0downloaded May 27 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.25.20112466\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.05.25.20112466<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[pre-print, not peer reviewed]\u00a0Neil et al.\u00a0use a Bayesian technique called &#8220;virtual evidence&#8221; to test the sensitivity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) to two significant sources of uncertainty: survey quality and\u00a0COVID-19 death counts.\u00a0This approach estimates an IFR that is\u00a0higher than widely reported\u00a0values. For Santa Clara,\u00a0CA\u00a0and Chelsea,\u00a0MA, the most likely IFR values are 0.3-0.4%.\u00a0\u00a0 Neil et&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/05\/27\/bayesian-network-analysis-of-covid-19-data-reveals-higher-infection-prevalence-rates-and-lower-fatality-rates-than-widely-reported\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-7144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7144"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7144\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7145,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7144\/revisions\/7145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7144"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=7144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}