{"id":7410,"date":"2020-06-08T15:46:10","date_gmt":"2020-06-08T22:46:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=7410"},"modified":"2021-03-24T15:46:57","modified_gmt":"2021-03-24T22:46:57","slug":"effects-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-cases-deaths-and-demand-for-hospital-services-in-the-uk-a-modelling-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/06\/08\/effects-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-cases-deaths-and-demand-for-hospital-services-in-the-uk-a-modelling-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Demand for Hospital Services in the UK: A Modelling Study"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"36\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Davies et al. used a\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">transmission model\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">estimate\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">that\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">without mitigation measures\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">23 million cases and 350,000 deaths due to COVID-19\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">would occur\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">in the UK by\u00a0December,\u00a02021. School closures, physical distancing, shielding people aged 70 or older, and isolation of symptomatic cases, in combination,\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">was projected to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">reduce<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0cases and deaths,<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">but r<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">epeated periods of phased lockdown<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent healthcare demand from exceeding capacity.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Davies et al. (June 2020). Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Demand for Hospital Services in the UK: A M<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">odelling Study.\u00a0The Lancet<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0Public Health.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S2468-2667(20)30133-X\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S2468-2667(20)30133-X<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Davies et al. used a\u00a0transmission model\u00a0to\u00a0estimate\u00a0that\u00a0without mitigation measures\u00a023 million cases and 350,000 deaths due to COVID-19\u00a0would occur\u00a0in the UK by\u00a0December,\u00a02021. School closures, physical distancing, shielding people aged 70 or older, and isolation of symptomatic cases, in combination,\u00a0was projected to\u00a0reduce\u00a0cases and deaths,\u00a0but repeated periods of phased lockdowns\u00a0would need to be in place for a large proportion&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/06\/08\/effects-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-cases-deaths-and-demand-for-hospital-services-in-the-uk-a-modelling-study\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-7410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7410"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7410\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7411,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7410\/revisions\/7411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7410"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=7410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}