{"id":8251,"date":"2020-07-15T11:31:02","date_gmt":"2020-07-15T18:31:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=8251"},"modified":"2021-04-01T11:31:48","modified_gmt":"2021-04-01T18:31:48","slug":"covid-19-scenarios-for-the-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/07\/15\/covid-19-scenarios-for-the-united-states\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"2019\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">[Preprint, not peer-reviewed]\u00a0<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Institute\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">for<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0team<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">used an SEIR model to estimate trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">non-pharmaceutical interventions<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0at the state level<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">from July\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">5\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">to December\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">31\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">2020. The model projects that cumulative total deaths across the US could reach 430,494 (288,046\u2013649,582) by December\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">31<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">st<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">2020. Greater than 60% of the deaths projected in this scenario would occur\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">in<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0five states:\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">California, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, and Virginia.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The model indicates that a<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">n emphasis on universal mask use<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">may\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">reduce<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0epidemic resurgences in many states, saving as many as 102,795 (<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">95%CI\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">55,898<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">183,374) lives.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">I<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">HME COVID-19 Forecasting\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Team<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">(July 14, 2020). COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States. Pre-print\u00a0downloaded July 15 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.07.12.20151191\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.07.12.20151191<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Preprint, not peer-reviewed]\u00a0The\u00a0Institute\u00a0for\u00a0Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)\u00a0team\u00a0used an SEIR model to estimate trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of\u00a0non-pharmaceutical interventions\u00a0at the state level\u00a0from July\u00a05\u00a0to December\u00a031\u00a02020. The model projects that cumulative total deaths across the US could reach 430,494 (288,046\u2013649,582) by December\u00a031st,\u00a02020. Greater than 60% of the deaths projected in this scenario would occur\u00a0in\u00a0five states:\u00a0California,&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/07\/15\/covid-19-scenarios-for-the-united-states\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-8251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8251"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8251\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8252,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8251\/revisions\/8252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8251"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=8251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}