{"id":8563,"date":"2020-07-29T11:03:09","date_gmt":"2020-07-29T18:03:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=8563"},"modified":"2021-04-05T11:03:52","modified_gmt":"2021-04-05T18:03:52","slug":"threshold-analyses-on-rates-of-testing-transmission-and-contact-for-covid-19-control-in-a-university-setting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/07\/29\/threshold-analyses-on-rates-of-testing-transmission-and-contact-for-covid-19-control-in-a-university-setting\/","title":{"rendered":"Threshold Analyses on Rates of Testing Transmission and Contact for COVID-19 Control in a University Setting"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"2019\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">[pre-print, not peer-reviewed]<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Zhao et al.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">simulated epidemic projections of a potential COVID-19 outbreak in a university population of 38,000 persons. They estimated that\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">the threshold number of contacts per person per day was 10 to prevent excess deaths<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">in a scenario with\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">a maximum capacity of trace and test\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">50%<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0and a 5.4%<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0chance of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">transmission<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0rate<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0per contact per day.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Further reducing the number of daily<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0contacts to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">4 or\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">fewer\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">allowed<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0for\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">up to<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">6-day\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">delay from the time of infection to diagnosis and isolation<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0without loss of epidemic control<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"34\" data-aria-posinset=\"2019\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The authors\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">suggest\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">that these threshold estimates may help develop on-campus scheduling and indoor-spacing plans in conjunction with plans for asymptomatic testing for COVID-19.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Zhao et al. (July 25, 2020). Threshold Analyses on Rates of Testing Transmission and Contact for COVID-19 Control in a University Setting. Pre-print downloaded July 27 from\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.07.21.20158303\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.07.21.20158303<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[pre-print, not peer-reviewed]\u00a0Zhao et al.\u00a0simulated epidemic projections of a potential COVID-19 outbreak in a university population of 38,000 persons. They estimated that\u00a0the threshold number of contacts per person per day was 10 to prevent excess deaths\u00a0in a scenario with\u00a0a maximum capacity of trace and test\u00a0of\u00a050%\u00a0and a 5.4%\u00a0chance of\u00a0transmission\u00a0rate\u00a0per contact per day.\u00a0Further reducing the number of&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/07\/29\/threshold-analyses-on-rates-of-testing-transmission-and-contact-for-covid-19-control-in-a-university-setting\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-8563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8563"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8563\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8564,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8563\/revisions\/8564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8563"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=8563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}