{"id":8709,"date":"2020-08-04T11:00:32","date_gmt":"2020-08-04T18:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=8709"},"modified":"2021-04-06T11:01:15","modified_gmt":"2021-04-06T18:01:15","slug":"was-school-closure-effective-in-mitigating-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-time-series-analysis-using-bayesian-inference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/08\/04\/was-school-closure-effective-in-mitigating-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-time-series-analysis-using-bayesian-inference\/","title":{"rendered":"Was School Closure Effective in Mitigating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Time Series Analysis Using Bayesian Inference"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"49\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Iwata et al. fit a\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">time series\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">model to case data\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">through March 31<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to assess effectiveness of school closure in Japan. They<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0assum<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ed<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">the effect of<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0school closures<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0on March 1<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">st<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0would become apparent 9 days\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">following closure<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">They found the\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">expected daily change in the number of cases<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0pre- versus post-school closures was 0.08 (95% C<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">I<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0-0.36, 0.65). As this estimate was greater than zero, the\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">authors concluded school closures did not reduce incidence<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">;\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">however<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0the<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0estimations had wide confidence intervals and r<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">esult<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s may lack p<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">recision<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Iwata et al. (July 2020). Was School Closure Effective in Mitigating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Time Series Analysis Using Bayesian Inference. International Journal of Infectious Diseases.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.07.052\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.07.052<\/span><\/i><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Iwata et al. fit a\u00a0time series\u00a0model to case data\u00a0through March 31\u00a0to assess effectiveness of school closure in Japan. They\u00a0assumed\u00a0the effect of\u00a0school closures\u00a0on March 1st\u00a0would become apparent 9 days\u00a0following closure.\u00a0\u00a0They found the\u00a0expected daily change in the number of cases\u00a0pre- versus post-school closures was 0.08 (95% CI\u00a0-0.36, 0.65). As this estimate was greater than zero, the\u00a0authors concluded&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/08\/04\/was-school-closure-effective-in-mitigating-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-time-series-analysis-using-bayesian-inference\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[22],"class_list":["post-8709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-non-pharmaceutical-interventions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8709","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8709"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8709\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8710,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8709\/revisions\/8710"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8709"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8709"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8709"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=8709"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}