{"id":8754,"date":"2020-08-05T11:24:08","date_gmt":"2020-08-05T18:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=8754"},"modified":"2021-04-06T11:24:56","modified_gmt":"2021-04-06T18:24:56","slug":"estimating-the-reproductive-number-r-0-of-sars-cov-2-in-the-united-states-and-eight-european-countries-and-implications-for-vaccination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/08\/05\/estimating-the-reproductive-number-r-0-of-sars-cov-2-in-the-united-states-and-eight-european-countries-and-implications-for-vaccination\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimating the Reproductive Number R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and Eight European Countries and Implications for Vaccination"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"10\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">[pre-print, not peer\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">reviewed]<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Ke<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0et al.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">e<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">stimate\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">that<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">the<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0herd immunity threshold needed to prevent sustained transmission of COVID-19\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ranges\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">between<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a073% and 84%.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Based on these estimates<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0and evidence that immunity may not be long-lasting, they suggest the need for repeated waves of vaccination. If mass vaccination achieves 85% immunity\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">that<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">last<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">approximately<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0one year, vaccination campaigns will need to occur multiple times a year.\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Annual v<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">accination\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">or vaccination<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0every two\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">would\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">be<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0sufficient to maintain herd immunity if the mean duration of individual immunity is 3 years.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:120,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Ke<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0et al. (<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Aug 4,\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">2020). Estimating the Reproductive Number R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and Eight European Countries and Implications for Vaccination.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Pre-print downloaded on August 5 from<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.07.31.20166298v1\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.07.31.20166298v1<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:120,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[pre-print, not peer\u00a0reviewed]\u00a0\u00a0Ke\u00a0et al.\u00a0estimate\u00a0that\u00a0the\u00a0herd immunity threshold needed to prevent sustained transmission of COVID-19\u00a0ranges\u00a0between\u00a073% and 84%.\u00a0Based on these estimates\u00a0and evidence that immunity may not be long-lasting, they suggest the need for repeated waves of vaccination. If mass vaccination achieves 85% immunity\u00a0that\u00a0lasts\u00a0approximately\u00a0one year, vaccination campaigns will need to occur multiple times a year.\u00a0Annual vaccination\u00a0or vaccination\u00a0every two\u00a0would\u00a0be\u00a0sufficient to&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/08\/05\/estimating-the-reproductive-number-r-0-of-sars-cov-2-in-the-united-states-and-eight-european-countries-and-implications-for-vaccination\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[31],"class_list":["post-8754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-vaccines-and-immunity"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8754"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8754\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8755,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8754\/revisions\/8755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8754"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=8754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}