{"id":9014,"date":"2020-08-12T11:20:06","date_gmt":"2020-08-12T18:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/?p=9014"},"modified":"2021-04-13T11:20:52","modified_gmt":"2021-04-13T18:20:52","slug":"model-based-projections-for-covid-19-outbreak-size-and-student-days-lost-to-closure-in-ontario-childcare-centres-and-primary-schools","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/08\/12\/model-based-projections-for-covid-19-outbreak-size-and-student-days-lost-to-closure-in-ontario-childcare-centres-and-primary-schools\/","title":{"rendered":"Model-Based Projections for COVID-19 Outbreak Size and Student-Days Lost to Closure in Ontario Childcare\u00a0Centres\u00a0and Primary Schools"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"8\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">[pre-print, not peer-reviewed]<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0Phillips et al. used an agent-based model to generate predictions of\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">SARS-CoV-2<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0infection and student-days lost within a hypothetical childcare center with 50 children and educators under existing proposals for childcare and school re-opening in Ontario, Canada.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:360,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"8\" data-aria-posinset=\"2\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Scenarios with student<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">teacher ratios of 7:3 with co-habiting\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">students\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">(e.g., siblings) grouped together had the lowest risk (lowest effective reproductive number).\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a015:2 configuration\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">generated\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">a well-defined epidemic curve even with classroom closure protocols in place, while smaller (8:2 and 7:3) configurations produced a more sporadic series of infection events.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:360,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Under higher density configurations (<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">15:2<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0the mean duration of student days lost to closures\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ranged from<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">145<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0215 days<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">depending on transmission\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">conditions<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">compared to\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">13<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0to<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a016<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">days<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">in a\u00a0<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">lower density configuration (7:3)<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233279&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:360,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><i><span data-contrast=\"none\">Phillips et al. (Aug 11, 2020). Model-Based Projections for COVID-19 Outbreak Size and Student-Days Lost to Closure in Ontario Childcare\u00a0Centres\u00a0and Primary Schools. Pre-print\u00a0downloaded on August 12 from<\/span><\/i><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.08.07.20170407\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.08.07.20170407<\/span><\/a><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[pre-print, not peer-reviewed]\u00a0Phillips et al. used an agent-based model to generate predictions of\u00a0SARS-CoV-2\u00a0infection and student-days lost within a hypothetical childcare center with 50 children and educators under existing proposals for childcare and school re-opening in Ontario, Canada.\u00a0\u00a0 Scenarios with student\u00a0to\u00a0teacher ratios of 7:3 with co-habiting\u00a0students\u00a0(e.g., siblings) grouped together had the lowest risk (lowest effective reproductive&#8230;<\/p>\n<div><a class=\"more\" href=\"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/2020\/08\/12\/model-based-projections-for-covid-19-outbreak-size-and-student-days-lost-to-closure-in-ontario-childcare-centres-and-primary-schools\/\">Read more<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[23],"class_list":["post-9014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article-summary","topic-modeling-and-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9014"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9014\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9015,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9014\/revisions\/9015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9014"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/depts.washington.edu\/pandemicalliance\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=9014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}